House Thomas
1Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
Elife. 2014 Sep 12;3:e03908. doi: 10.7554/eLife.03908.
Ebola is a deadly virus that causes frequent disease outbreaks in the human population. In this study, we analyse its rate of new introductions, case fatality ratio, and potential to spread from person to person. The analysis is performed for all completed outbreaks and for a scenario where these are augmented by a more severe outbreak of several thousand cases. The results show a fast rate of new outbreaks, a high case fatality ratio, and an effective reproductive ratio of just less than 1.
埃博拉是一种致命病毒，在人群中频繁引发疾病爆发。在本研究中，我们分析了其新引入率、病死率以及人际传播潜力。该分析针对所有已完成的疫情爆发情况进行，同时还针对一种假设情景进行了分析，即假设这些疫情因一场数千例的更严重疫情爆发而增加。结果显示新疫情爆发速度很快，病死率很高，有效繁殖率略低于1。
