生育推迟的队列模型。
A cohort model of fertility postponement.
作者信息
Goldstein Joshua R, Cassidy Thomas
机构信息
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA,
出版信息
Demography. 2014 Oct;51(5):1797-819. doi: 10.1007/s13524-014-0332-7.
We introduce a new formal model in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo adjustment to determine the period fertility that would have occurred without postponement. Cohort-based postponement spans multiple periods and produces "fertility momentum," with implications for future fertility rates. We illustrate several methods for model estimation and apply the model to fertility in several countries. We also compare the fit of period-based and cohort-based shift models to the recent Dutch fertility surface, showing how cohort- and period-based postponement can occur simultaneously.
我们引入了一种新的形式模型，在该模型中，诸如生育等人口行为仅根据队列成员身份被推迟不同的时长。基于队列的模型展示了队列变化对时期生育指标的影响，并提供了相应的节奏调整，以确定在没有推迟情况下本应出现的时期生育率。基于队列的推迟跨越多个时期并产生“生育惯性”，这对未来生育率有影响。我们阐述了几种模型估计方法，并将该模型应用于多个国家的生育率情况。我们还比较了基于时期和基于队列的变化模型对近期荷兰生育率曲面的拟合情况，展示了基于队列和基于时期的推迟如何能够同时发生。
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