2010 - 2012年巴利阿里群岛采用捕获再捕获法估算的结核病发病率

Estimated incidence of tuberculosis by capture-recapture in the Balearic Islands, 2010-2012.

作者信息

Giménez-Duran J, Galmés-Truyols A, González-Cortijo T, Bosch-Isabel C, Nicolau-Riutort A, de Mateo-Ontañón S

机构信息

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.

Epidemiology Service, Public Health Directorate of the Balearic Islands Regional Government, Palma, Spain.

出版信息

Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2014 Nov;18(11):1357-62. doi: 10.5588/ijtld.14.0251.

DOI:10.5588/ijtld.14.0251

PMID:25299871

Abstract

SETTING

The Balearic Islands, Spain, 2010-2012.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the completeness of TB surveillance, and to examine observed and estimated incidence rates (IR) compared with the period 2005-2007.

DESIGN

The completeness of TB surveillance was assessed using the capture-recapture method. Confidence intervals were calculated using log-linear models. Data sources were records of mandatory notifiable diseases, active hospital surveillance and computerised primary health care history.

RESULTS

Surveillance completeness for respiratory TB (R-TB) was 99.5%; it was 100% for non-respiratory TB (NR-TB). The overall observed IR was 16.32 cases/100 000 for all types of TB, 3.4 for NR-TB and 12.9 for R-TB. The estimated IR of TB all forms was 16.35/100 000 (95%CI 16.26-16.53), for NR-TB it was 3.4/100 000 (95%CI not calculated) and for R-TB it was 13.0/100 000 (95%CI 12.85-13.12). Surveillance completeness for R-TB during the period 2005-2007 was 65.2%; the observed IR was 22.6/100 000 and the estimated IR 31.3/10 000 (95%CI 25.0-37.7).

CONCLUSION

The similarity of observed and estimated IR during the period 2010-2012 indicates the validity of the surveillance and the use of improved systems such as electronic medical records in recent years.

摘要

背景

2010 - 2012年，西班牙巴利阿里群岛。

目的

评估结核病监测的完整性，并比较2005 - 2007年期间观察到的和估计的发病率（IR）。

设计

采用捕获 - 再捕获法评估结核病监测的完整性。使用对数线性模型计算置信区间。数据来源为法定传染病记录、医院主动监测和计算机化的初级卫生保健病史。

结果

呼吸道结核病（R - TB）的监测完整性为99.5%；非呼吸道结核病（NR - TB）为100%。所有类型结核病的总体观察到的发病率为16.32例/10万，NR - TB为3.4例/10万，R - TB为12.9例/10万。所有形式结核病的估计发病率为16.35/10万（95%CI 16.26 - 16.53），NR - TB为3.4/10万（95%CI未计算），R - TB为13.0/10万（95%CI 12.85 - 13.12）。2005 - 2007年期间R - TB的监测完整性为65.2%；观察到的发病率为22.6/10万，估计发病率为31.3/10万（95%CI 25.0 - 37.7）。