Scarborough Peter, Harrington Richard A, Mizdrak Anja, Zhou Lijuan Marissa, Doherty Aiden
British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches to Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
DCU School of Computing, Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland.
Scientifica (Cairo). 2014;2014:748750. doi: 10.1155/2014/748750. Epub 2014 Sep 25.
Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed.
非传染性疾病（NCD）情景模型是公共卫生工具包的重要组成部分，可用于估计那些无法通过标准流行病学研究设计进行评估的人群层面干预措施对健康的影响（例如，与健康相关的食品税和物理基础设施项目），并将小样本结果外推至整个人口。PRIME（可预防风险综合模型）是一个公开可用的非传染性疾病情景模型，用于估计人群层面饮食、身体活动以及酒精和烟草消费的变化对非传染性疾病死亡率的影响。本文详细描述了PRIME所采用的结构和方法，包括将支持2015年推出的PRIME网络应用程序的开源代码的开发。本文回顾了11篇使用PRIME的论文的情景结果，包括实现政府健康饮食建议、与健康相关的食品税和补贴以及低碳饮食的影响估计。还讨论了非传染性疾病情景建模未来面临的挑战，包括需要对模型进行更多比较以及改进非传染性疾病发病率的未来预测。
