Chen S C, Hsieh N H, You S H, Wang C H, Liao C M
Department of Public Health,Chung Shan Medical University,Taichung,Taiwan,ROC.
Institute of Labor,Occupational Safety and Health,Ministry of Labor,New Taipei City,Taiwan,ROC.
Epidemiol Infect. 2015 Jul;143(9):1846-57. doi: 10.1017/S0950268814002714. Epub 2014 Oct 31.
The purpose of this paper was to determine how contact behaviour change influences the indoor transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 among school children. We incorporated transmission rate matrices constructed from questionnaire responses into an epidemiological model to simulate contact behaviour change during an influenza epidemic. We constructed a dose-response model describing the relationships between contact rate, viral load, and respiratory symptom scores using published experimental human infection data for A(H1N1)pdm09. Findings showed that that mean numbers of contacts were 5.66 ± 6.23 and 1.96 ± 2.76 d-1 in the 13-19 and 40-59 years age groups, respectively. We found that the basic reproduction number (R 0) was <1 during weekends in pandemic periods, implying that school closures or class suspensions are probably an effective social distancing policy to control pandemic influenza transmission. We conclude that human contact behaviour change is a potentially influential factor on influenza infection rates. For substantiation of this effect, we recommend a future study with more comprehensive control measures.
本文的目的是确定接触行为变化如何影响甲型H1N1pdm09流感在学龄儿童中的室内传播。我们将根据问卷调查结果构建的传播率矩阵纳入一个流行病学模型,以模拟流感流行期间的接触行为变化。我们利用已发表的甲型H1N1pdm09流感病毒人体感染实验数据,构建了一个剂量反应模型,描述接触率、病毒载量和呼吸道症状评分之间的关系。研究结果显示,13 - 19岁和40 - 59岁年龄组的平均接触次数分别为5.66±6.23次/天和1.96±2.76次/天。我们发现,大流行期间周末的基本再生数(R0)<1,这意味着学校关闭或停课可能是控制大流行性流感传播的一项有效的社会距离政策。我们得出结论,人类接触行为变化是影响流感感染率的一个潜在因素。为了证实这种影响,我们建议未来开展一项采取更全面控制措施的研究。