Curry Allison E, Elliott Michael R, Pfeiffer Melissa R, Kim Konny H, Durbin Dennis R
Center for Injury Research and Prevention; Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health; Survey Methodology Program, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
Am J Prev Med. 2015 Feb;48(2):121-127. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2014.08.024. Epub 2014 Nov 3.
New Jersey (NJ) implemented the first Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) decal provision in the U.S. in May 2010. An initial study reported a 1-year post-decal decrease in the crash rate among NJ intermediate drivers aged <21 years. Longer-term analysis is critical for policymakers in other states considering whether to implement a decal provision.
To evaluate the longer-term (2-year) effect of NJ's decal provision on overall and age-specific crash rates of young drivers with intermediate licenses.
Monthly per-driver police-reported crash rates during January 2006-June 2012 were estimated. Specific crash types included injury, midnight-4:59am, single-vehicle, multiple-vehicle, and peer passenger crashes. Negative binomial modeling compared pre- versus post-decal crash rates, adjusting for age, gender, calendar month, gas price, and 21- to 24-year-old licensed driver crash rates; piecewise negative binomial regression models accounted for pre-decal crash trends among intermediate drivers. Analyses were conducted in 2013.
The adjusted crash rate for intermediate drivers was 9.5% lower in the 2-year post-decal period than the 4-year pre-decal period (95% CI=0.88, 0.93). Crash rates decreased 1.8% per year before the provision and 7.9% per year in the post-decal period (p<0.001 for difference in slopes). For several crash types, effects appeared to be particularly strong for 18- and 19-year-olds. An estimated 3,197 intermediate drivers had crashes prevented.
NJ's decal provision was associated with a sustained decline in intermediate driver crashes. Future research should aim to better understand the causal mechanism by which NJ's decal provision may have exerted an effect.
2010年5月，新泽西州（NJ）在美国率先实施了分级驾驶员执照（GDL）贴花规定。一项初步研究报告称，贴花规定实施一年后，新泽西州21岁以下中级驾驶员的撞车率有所下降。对于其他考虑是否实施贴花规定的州的政策制定者来说，长期分析至关重要。
评估新泽西州贴花规定对持有中级执照的年轻驾驶员总体和特定年龄撞车率的长期（2年）影响。
估计2006年1月至2012年6月期间警方每月报告的每位驾驶员的撞车率。具体的撞车类型包括受伤、午夜至凌晨4:59、单车、多车和同乘乘客撞车。负二项式模型比较了贴花规定前后的撞车率，并对年龄、性别、日历月、汽油价格以及21至24岁持照驾驶员的撞车率进行了调整；分段负二项式回归模型考虑了中级驾驶员在贴花规定前的撞车趋势。分析于2013年进行。
贴花规定实施后的2年期间，中级驾驶员的调整后撞车率比贴花规定实施前的4年期间低9.5%（95%CI = 0.88, 0.93）。在实施贴花规定之前，撞车率每年下降1.8%，在实施贴花规定之后，每年下降7.9%（斜率差异p < 0.001）。对于几种撞车类型，18岁和19岁的驾驶员受影响似乎尤为明显。估计有3197名中级驾驶员避免了撞车事故。
新泽西州的贴花规定与中级驾驶员撞车事故的持续下降有关。未来的研究应旨在更好地理解新泽西州贴花规定可能产生影响的因果机制。
