Kriz Bohumir, Daniel Milan, Benes Cestmir, Maly Marek
National Institute of Public Health, 3rd Medical Faculty, Charles University , Praha, Czech Republic .
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2014 Nov;14(11):801-7. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2013.1569.
In the Czech Republic, the incidence of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has been increasing over the last two decades. At the same time, populations of game have also shown an upward trend. In this country, the ungulate game is the main host group of hosts for Ixodes ricinus female ticks. This study examined the potential contribution of two most widespread game species (roe deer [Capreolus capreolus] and wild boar [Sus scrofa]) to the high incidence of TBE in the Czech Republic, using the annual numbers of culls as a proxy for the game population. This was an ecological study, with annual figures for geographical areas-municipalities with extended competence (MEC)-used as units of analysis. Between 2003 and 2011, a total of 6213 TBE cases were reported, and 1062,308 roe deer and 989,222 wild boars were culled; the culls of roe deer did not demonstrate a clear temporal trend, but wild boar culls almost doubled (from 77,269 to 143,378 per year). Statistical analyses revealed a positive association between TBE incidence rate and the relative number of culled wild boars. In multivariate analyses, a change in the numbers of culled wild boars between the 25th and 75th percentile was associated with TBE incidence rate ratio of 1.23 (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.41, p=0.003). By contrast, the association of TBE with culled roe deer was not statistically significant (p=0.481). The results suggest that the size of the wild boar population may have contributed to the current high levels and the rising trend in incidence of TBE, whereas the regulated population of roe deer does not seem to be implicated in recent geographical or temporal variations in TBE in the Czech Republic.
在捷克共和国,过去二十年来人类蜱传脑炎(TBE)的发病率一直在上升。与此同时,猎物数量也呈上升趋势。在该国,有蹄类猎物是蓖麻硬蜱雌蜱的主要宿主群体。本研究以每年的捕杀数量作为猎物种群的替代指标,考察了两种分布最广的猎物物种(狍[Capreolus capreolus]和野猪[Sus scrofa])对捷克共和国TBE高发病率的潜在影响。这是一项生态学研究,以地理区域——具有扩大权限的直辖市(MEC)的年度数据作为分析单位。2003年至2011年期间,共报告了6213例TBE病例,捕杀了1062308只狍和989222头野猪;狍的捕杀数量没有呈现出明显的时间趋势,但野猪的捕杀数量几乎翻了一番(从每年77269头增至143378头)。统计分析显示,TBE发病率与捕杀野猪的相对数量之间存在正相关。在多变量分析中,捕杀野猪数量在第25百分位数和第75百分位数之间的变化与TBE发病率比值为1.23相关(95%置信区间1.07 - 1.41,p = 0.003)。相比之下,TBE与捕杀狍之间的关联无统计学意义(p = 0.481)。结果表明,野猪种群规模可能是导致目前TBE高发病率及其上升趋势的原因,而受管控的狍种群似乎与捷克共和国近期TBE的地理或时间变化无关。