Lanzas Cristina, Chen Shi
Department of Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tennessee, 2407 River Drive, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA; National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.
Department of Biomedical and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tennessee, 2407 River Drive, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA.
Prev Vet Med. 2015 Feb 1;118(2-3):207-14. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.09.012. Epub 2014 Oct 5.
The use of mathematical models has a long tradition in infectious disease epidemiology. The nonlinear dynamics and complexity of pathogen transmission pose challenges in understanding its key determinants, in identifying critical points, and designing effective mitigation strategies. Mathematical modelling provides tools to explicitly represent the variability, interconnectedness, and complexity of systems, and has contributed to numerous insights and theoretical advances in disease transmission, as well as to changes in public policy, health practice, and management. In recent years, our modelling toolbox has considerably expanded due to the advancements in computing power and the need to model novel data generated by technologies such as proximity loggers and global positioning systems. In this review, we discuss the principles, advantages, and challenges associated with the most recent modelling approaches used in systems science, the interdisciplinary study of complex systems, including agent-based, network and compartmental modelling. Agent-based modelling is a powerful simulation technique that considers the individual behaviours of system components by defining a set of rules that govern how individuals ("agents") within given populations interact with one another and the environment. Agent-based models have become a recent popular choice in epidemiology to model hierarchical systems and address complex spatio-temporal dynamics because of their ability to integrate multiple scales and datasets.
数学模型在传染病流行病学中的应用有着悠久的传统。病原体传播的非线性动力学和复杂性给理解其关键决定因素、识别临界点以及设计有效的缓解策略带来了挑战。数学建模提供了明确表示系统变异性、相互关联性和复杂性的工具,并在疾病传播方面带来了诸多见解和理论进展,同时也推动了公共政策、卫生实践和管理方面的变革。近年来,由于计算能力的提升以及对诸如接近度记录器和全球定位系统等技术产生的新数据进行建模的需求,我们的建模工具箱得到了极大扩展。在本综述中,我们将讨论与系统科学中使用的最新建模方法相关的原理、优势和挑战,系统科学是对复杂系统的跨学科研究,包括基于主体的建模、网络建模和 compartmental 建模。基于主体的建模是一种强大的模拟技术,它通过定义一组规则来考虑系统组件的个体行为,这些规则规定了给定群体中的个体(“主体”)如何相互作用以及与环境相互作用。由于能够整合多个尺度和数据集,基于主体的模型最近在流行病学中成为模拟分层系统和解决复杂时空动态的热门选择。