Oseguera Montiel David, Bruce Mieghan, Frankena Klaas, Udo Henk, van der Zijpp Akke, Rushton Jonathan
Animal Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands; Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Production and Population Health, The Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Herts AL9 7TA, UK.
Prev Vet Med. 2015 Mar 1;118(4):247-59. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.11.014. Epub 2014 Dec 4.
Brucellosis is an endemic disease in small-scale goat husbandry systems in Mexico. It is a zoonosis and the economic consequences can be large, although estimates are not available for the Mexican goat sector. Our objective was to conduct a financial analysis of brucellosis control in a prominent dairy goat production area of the Bajío region, Mexico. We used three models: (1) a brucellosis transmission model at village flock level (n=1000 head), (2) a flock growth model at smallholder flock level (n=23 head) using output of model 1 and (3) cost-benefit analysis of several brucellosis control scenarios based on output of model 2. Scenarios consisted of test-and-slaughter or vaccination or a combination of both compared to the base situation (no control). The average net present values (NPV) of using vaccination over a 5-year period was 3.8 US$ (90% CI: 1.3-6.6) and 20 US$ (90% CI: 11.3-28.6) over a 10-year period per goat. The average benefit-cost ratios over a 5-year period and 10-year period were 4.3 US$ (90% CI: 2.2-6.9) and 12.3 US$ (90% CI: 7.5-17.3) per goat, respectively. For the total dairy goat population (38,462 head) of the study area (the Bajío of Jalisco and Michoacán) the NPV's over a 5-year and 10-year period were 0.15 million US$ and 0.8 million US$. However, brucellosis prevalence was predicted to remain relatively high at about 12%. Control scenarios with test-and-slaughter predicted to reduce brucellosis prevalence to less than 3%, but this produced a negative NPV over a 5-year period ranging from -31.6 to -11.1 US$ and from -31.1 to 7.5 US$ over a 10-year period. A brucellosis control campaign based on vaccination with full coverage is economically profitable for the goat dairy sector of the region although smallholders would need financial support in case test-and-slaughter is applied to reduce the prevalence more quickly.
布鲁氏菌病是墨西哥小规模山羊养殖系统中的一种地方病。它是一种人畜共患病，尽管尚无墨西哥山羊养殖部门的相关估计，但经济后果可能很严重。我们的目标是对墨西哥巴希奥地区一个著名的奶山羊生产区的布鲁氏菌病防控进行财务分析。我们使用了三种模型：（1）村群水平（n = 1000头）的布鲁氏菌病传播模型，（2）利用模型1的输出结果在小农户畜群水平（n = 23头）的畜群增长模型，以及（3）基于模型2的输出结果对几种布鲁氏菌病防控方案的成本效益分析。方案包括检测与扑杀、疫苗接种或两者结合，并与基准情况（无防控）进行比较。在5年期间使用疫苗接种的平均净现值（NPV）为每只山羊3.8美元（90%置信区间：1.3 - 6.6美元），在10年期间为20美元（90%置信区间：11.3 - 28.6美元）。在5年和10年期间的平均效益成本比分别为每只山羊4.3美元（90%置信区间：2.2 - 6.9美元）和12.3美元（90%置信区间：7.5 - 17.3美元）。对于研究区域（哈利斯科州和米却肯州的巴希奥地区）的奶山羊总存栏量（38462头），5年和10年期间的净现值分别为15万美元和80万美元。然而，预计布鲁氏菌病患病率仍将相对较高，约为12%。检测与扑杀的防控方案预计可将布鲁氏菌病患病率降至3%以下，但这在5年期间产生了-31.6至-11.1美元的负净现值，在10年期间为-31.1至7.5美元。对于该地区的奶山羊养殖部门来说，基于全面覆盖疫苗接种的布鲁氏菌病防控运动在经济上是有利可图的，不过如果采用检测与扑杀以更快降低患病率，小农户将需要财政支持。
