Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Department of Production Animal Clinical Science, P.O. Box 8146 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway; TINE Extension Services, Goat Health Service, P.O. Box 58, N-1431 Ås, Norway.
Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute, P.O. Box 8024 Dep, N-0030 Oslo, Norway.
Prev Vet Med. 2014 May 1;114(2):96-105. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.02.002. Epub 2014 Feb 14.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the profitability to dairy goat farmers of participating in the Healthier Goats disease control and eradication programme (HG), which was initiated in 2001 and is still running. HG includes the control and eradication of caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE), caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) and paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in Norwegian goat herds. The profitability of participation was estimated in a financial cost-benefit analysis (CBA) using partial budgeting to quantify the economic consequences of infectious disease control through HG versus taking no action. Historical data were collected from 24 enrolled dairy goat herds and 21 herds not enrolled in HG, and supplemented with information from a questionnaire distributed to the same farmers. Expert opinions were collected to arrive at the best possible estimates. For some input parameters there were uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge, thus these parameters were modelled as PERT probability distributions and a stochastic simulation model was built. The CBA model was used to generate distributions of net present value (NPV) of farmers' net cash flows for choosing to enroll versus not enrolling. This was done for three selected milk quota levels of 30000L, 50000L and 70000L, and both for before and after the introduction of a reduced milk price for the non-enrolled. The NPVs were calculated over time horizons of 5, 10 and 20 years using an inflation-adjusted discount rate of 2.8% per annum. The results show that participation in HG on average was profitable over a time horizon of 10 years or longer for quota levels of 50000L and 70000L, although not without risk of having a negative NPV. If farmers had to pay all the costs themselves, participation in HG would have been profitable only for a time horizon beyond 20 years. In 2012, a reduced milk price was introduced for farmers not enrolled in HG, changing the decision criteria for farmers, and thus, the CBA. When the analysis was altered to account for these changes, the expected NPV was positive over five years for the 50000L quota, indicating an increased profitability of enrolling in HG. The sensitivity analysis showed that particular attention should be paid to work load and investment costs when planning for disease control programmes in the future.
本研究旨在评估参与“健康山羊疾病控制和根除计划”（HG）的奶山羊养殖户的盈利能力，该计划于 2001 年启动，至今仍在运行。HG 包括控制和根除挪威山羊群中的关节炎脑炎（CAE）、干酪性淋巴结炎（CLA）和副结核病（约翰氏病）。通过与不采取任何行动相比，通过 HG 量化传染病控制的经济后果，使用部分预算编制对参与的盈利能力进行了财务成本效益分析（CBA）。从 24 个已注册的奶山羊养殖场和 21 个未注册的 HG 养殖场收集了历史数据，并补充了向同一农民分发的问卷信息。收集了专家意见，以得出尽可能最好的估计。对于一些投入参数，由于知识不完善而存在不确定性，因此这些参数被建模为 PERT 概率分布，并建立了一个随机模拟模型。CBA 模型用于生成农民选择注册与不注册的净现金流量的净现值（NPV）分布。对于 30000L、50000L 和 70000L 三个选定的牛奶配额水平，以及在为非注册者降低牛奶价格之前和之后，都进行了此操作。使用通货膨胀调整后的 2.8%的贴现率，在 5、10 和 20 年的时间范围内计算了 NPV。结果表明，对于 50000L 和 70000L 的配额水平，在 10 年或更长时间的时间范围内，参与 HG 平均是盈利的，尽管存在负 NPV 的风险。如果农民必须自己承担所有费用，那么只有在 20 年以上的时间范围内，参与 HG 才会盈利。2012 年，为未注册的农民引入了较低的牛奶价格，改变了农民的决策标准，因此也改变了 CBA。当分析改为考虑这些变化时，对于 50000L 的配额，五年内的预期 NPV 为正，表明参与 HG 的盈利能力有所提高。敏感性分析表明，在未来规划疾病控制计划时，应特别注意工作量和投资成本。
