Demarest Jeffrey, Pagsuyoin Sheree, Learmonth Gerard, Mellor Jonathan, Dillingham Rebecca
J Artif Soc Soc Simul. 2013;16(4). doi: 10.18564/jasss.2169.
Diarrhea, the second leading cause of child morbidity and mortality, can have detrimental effects in the physical and cognitive development of children in developing countries. Health interventions (e.g., increased access to health services and safe water) designed to address this problem are difficult to implement in resource-limited settings. In this paper, we present a tool for understanding the complex relationship between water and public health in rural areas of a developing country. A spatial and temporal agent-based model (ABM) was developed to simulate the current water, sanitation, and health status in two villages in Limpopo Province, South Africa. The model was calibrated using empirical data and published sources. It was used to simulate the effects of poor water quality on the frequency of diarrheal episodes in children, and consequently on child development. Preliminary simulation results show that at the current total coliform levels in the water sources of the studied villages, children are expected to experience stunting by as much as -1.0 standard deviations from the World Health Organization height norms. With minor modifications, the calibrated ABM can be used to design and evaluate intervention strategies for improving child health in these villages. The model can also be applied to other regions worldwide that face the same environmental challenges and conditions as the studied villages.
腹泻是儿童发病和死亡的第二大主要原因，对发展中国家儿童的身体和认知发育可能产生不利影响。旨在解决这一问题的卫生干预措施（如增加获得卫生服务和安全饮用水的机会）在资源有限的环境中难以实施。在本文中，我们展示了一种用于理解发展中国家农村地区水与公共卫生之间复杂关系的工具。我们开发了一个基于时空智能体的模型（ABM），以模拟南非林波波省两个村庄当前的水、卫生和健康状况。该模型使用实证数据和已发表的资料进行了校准。它被用于模拟水质差对儿童腹泻发作频率的影响，进而对儿童发育的影响。初步模拟结果表明，在所研究村庄水源目前的总大肠菌群水平下，预计儿童身高将比世界卫生组织的身高标准低多达1.0个标准差，从而出现发育迟缓。经过微小修改后，校准后的ABM可用于设计和评估改善这些村庄儿童健康的干预策略。该模型还可应用于全球其他面临与所研究村庄相同环境挑战和条件的地区。
