Woods T E Carl, Raynor J Annette, Bruce Lyndell, McDonald Zane
a School of Exercise and Health Sciences , Edith Cowan University , Joondalup , WA , Australia.
J Sports Sci. 2015;33(11):1132-40. doi: 10.1080/02640414.2014.986501. Epub 2014 Dec 23.
This study examined whether skill tests were predictive of status in junior Australian football. Players were recruited from the 2013 under 18 (U18) West Australian Football League competition and classified into two groups: elite (state U18 squad representative; n = 25; 17.9 ± 0.5 years) and subelite (nonstate U18 squad representative; n = 25; 17.3 ± 0.6 years). Both groups completed the Australian football kicking (AFK) and Australian football handballing (AFHB) tests, assessing kicking accuracy/ball speed and handballing accuracy on dominant and nondominant sides. A multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) modelled the main effect of "status", whilst logistic regression models were built for the predictive analysis using the same test parameters. Between-group differences were noted across all parameters, with the combination of kicking accuracy and ball speed on the dominant and nondominant sides being the best predictor of status for the AFK test (wi = 0.25, AUC = 89.4%) and the combination of accuracy on the dominant and nondominant sides being the best predictor of status for the AFHB test (wi = 0.80, AUC = 88.4%). The AFK and AFHB tests are predictive of status, suggesting that their use is warranted as a means of talent identification in junior Australian football.
本研究考察了技能测试是否能预测澳大利亚青少年足球运动员的水平。从2013年西澳大利亚18岁以下（U18）足球联赛中招募球员，并将其分为两组：精英组（州U18代表队队员；n = 25；17.9±0.5岁）和次精英组（非州U18代表队队员；n = 25；17.3±0.6岁）。两组球员均完成了澳大利亚式足球踢球（AFK）和澳大利亚式足球手传球（AFHB）测试，评估其在优势侧和非优势侧的踢球准确性/球速以及手传球准确性。采用多变量方差分析（MANOVA）对“水平”的主效应进行建模，同时使用相同的测试参数建立逻辑回归模型进行预测分析。所有参数在两组之间均存在差异，对于AFK测试，优势侧和非优势侧的踢球准确性与球速的组合是水平的最佳预测指标（权重wi = 0.25，曲线下面积AUC = 89.4%）；对于AFHB测试，优势侧和非优势侧的准确性组合是水平的最佳预测指标（wi = 0.80，AUC = 88.4%）。AFK和AFHB测试能够预测球员水平，这表明将其作为澳大利亚青少年足球人才识别的一种手段是合理的。
