Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2012;2:887. doi: 10.1038/srep00887. Epub 2012 Nov 27.
With the help of mass media, people receive information concerning the status of an infectious disease to guide their mobility. Herein, we develop a theoretical framework to investigate the safety-information-driven human mobility with metapopulation epidemic dynamics. Individuals respond to the safety information of a city by taking safe moves (passing cities with a more number of healthy individuals) or unsafe moves (passing cities with a less number of healthy individuals). Our findings show that the critical threshold depends on mobility in such a way that personal execution of safe moves unexpectedly promotes the global spread of a disease, while unsafe moves counterintuitively cause a locally, relatively small outbreak size. Our analysis underlines the role of safety consideration in the spatial spread of an infectious disease with clear implications for the model of mobility driven by individuals' benefit.
借助大众媒体，人们可以获取有关传染病状况的信息，以指导他们的行动。在此，我们建立了一个理论框架，用于研究具有人口流行动力学的安全信息驱动的人类移动性。个体通过采取安全行动（经过健康个体人数较多的城市）或不安全行动（经过健康个体人数较少的城市）来响应城市的安全信息。我们的研究结果表明，关键阈值取决于移动性，个人采取安全行动出人意料地促进了疾病的全球传播，而不安全行动则反直觉地导致局部地区的爆发规模相对较小。我们的分析强调了安全考虑在传染病空间传播中的作用，这对个人利益驱动的移动性模型具有明确的意义。
