Chen Jing, McGhee Sarah M, Townsend Joy, Lam Tai Hing, Hedley Anthony J
School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Tob Control. 2015 Jun;24(e2):e161-7. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2014-051937. Epub 2015 Jan 6.
Estimates of illicit cigarette consumption are limited and the data obtained from studies funded by the tobacco industry have a tendency to inflate them. This study aimed to validate an industry-funded estimate of 35.9% for Hong Kong using a framework taken from an industry-funded report, but with more transparent data sources.
Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated as the difference between total cigarette consumption and the sum of legal domestic sales and legal personal imports (duty-free consumption). Reliable data from government reports and scientifically valid routine sources were used to estimate the total cigarette consumption by Hong Kong smokers and legal domestic sales in Hong Kong. Consumption by visitors and legal duty-free consumption by Hong Kong passengers were estimated under three scenarios for the assumptions to examine the uncertainty around the estimate. A two-way sensitivity analysis was conducted using different levels of possible undeclared smoking and under-reporting of self-reported daily consumption.
Illicit cigarette consumption was estimated to be about 8.2-15.4% of the total cigarette consumption in Hong Kong in 2012 with a midpoint estimate of 11.9%, as compared with the industry-funded estimate of 35.9% of cigarette consumption. The industry-funded estimate was inflated by 133-337% of the probable true value. Only with significant levels of under-reporting of daily cigarette consumption and undeclared smoking could we approximate the value reported in the industry-funded study.
The industry-funded estimate inflates the likely levels of illicit cigarette consumption.
对非法卷烟消费的估计有限，且从烟草行业资助的研究中获得的数据往往会夸大这些估计值。本研究旨在使用一份行业资助报告中的框架，但采用更透明的数据来源，来验证香港非法卷烟消费行业资助估计值35.9%的准确性。
非法卷烟消费估计为卷烟总消费量与合法国内销售量和合法个人进口量（免税消费）之和的差值。使用政府报告中的可靠数据和科学有效的常规来源数据，来估计香港吸烟者的卷烟总消费量和香港的合法国内销售量。在三种假设情景下估计游客消费和香港旅客的合法免税消费，以检验估计值周围的不确定性。使用不同水平的可能未申报吸烟量和自我报告的每日消费量的低报情况进行双向敏感性分析。
2012年，香港非法卷烟消费量估计约占卷烟总消费量的8.2%-15.4%，中点估计值为11.9%，而行业资助的估计值为卷烟消费量的35.9%。行业资助的估计值比可能的真实值高出133%-337%。只有在每日卷烟消费量大量低报和存在未申报吸烟的情况下，我们才能接近行业资助研究中报告的值。
行业资助的估计值夸大了非法卷烟消费的可能水平。
