Shenoi Rohit P, Levine Ned, Jones Jennifer L, Frost Mary H, Koerner Christine E, Fraser John J
Section of Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children's Hospital, Texas, USA.
Ned Levine and Associates, Texas, USA.
Inj Prev. 2015 Aug;21(4):245-53. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2014-041397. Epub 2015 Jan 9.
Drowning is a major cause of unintentional childhood death. The relationship between childhood swimming pool submersions, neighbourhood sociodemographics, housing type and swimming pool location was examined in Harris County, Texas.
Childhood pool submersion incidents were examined for spatial clustering using the Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical Cluster (Nnh) algorithm. To relate submersions to predictive factors, an Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Poisson-Lognormal-Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) spatial regression model was tested at the census tract level.
There were 260 submersions; 49 were fatal. Forty-two per cent occurred at single-family residences and 36% at multifamily residential buildings. The risk of a submersion was 2.7 times higher for a child at a multifamily than a single-family residence and 28 times more likely in a multifamily swimming pool than a single family pool. However, multifamily submersions were clustered because of the concentration of such buildings with pools. Spatial clustering did not occur in single-family residences. At the tract level, submersions in single-family and multifamily residences were best predicted by the number of pools by housing type and the number of children aged 0-17 by housing type.
Paediatric swimming pool submersions in multifamily buildings are spatially clustered. The likelihood of submersions is higher for children who live in multifamily buildings with pools than those who live in single-family homes with pools.
溺水是儿童意外死亡的主要原因。在得克萨斯州哈里斯县，研究了儿童游泳池溺水事件与社区社会人口统计学、住房类型和游泳池位置之间的关系。
使用最近邻层次聚类（Nnh）算法检查儿童游泳池溺水事件的空间聚类情况。为了将溺水事件与预测因素相关联，在人口普查区层面测试了马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）泊松-对数正态-条件自回归（CAR）空间回归模型。
共发生260起溺水事件；49起致命。42%的事件发生在独栋住宅，36%发生在多户住宅建筑。多户住宅中的儿童溺水风险是独栋住宅中儿童的2.7倍，在多户住宅游泳池中溺水的可能性是单户住宅游泳池的28倍。然而，多户住宅溺水事件呈聚类分布是因为此类带游泳池建筑的集中。独栋住宅中未出现空间聚类。在人口普查区层面，独栋和多户住宅中的溺水事件最好通过按住房类型划分的游泳池数量以及按住房类型划分的0至17岁儿童数量来预测。
多户住宅中的儿童游泳池溺水事件存在空间聚类。居住在有游泳池的多户住宅中的儿童比居住在有游泳池的独栋住宅中的儿童溺水可能性更高。
