Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA.
Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2015 Apr 1;511:553-61. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.01.005. Epub 2015 Jan 10.
Haze is a serious air pollution problem in China, especially in Beijing and surrounding areas, affecting visibility, public health and regional climate. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was used to simulate PM2.5 (particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter≤2.5 μm) concentrations during the 2013 severe haze event in Beijing, and health impacts and health-related economic losses were calculated based on model results. Compared with surface monitoring data, the model results reflected pollution concentrations accurately (correlation coefficients between simulated and measured PM2.5 were 0.7, 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6 in Beijing, Tianjin, Xianghe and Xinglong stations, respectively). Health impacts assessments show that the PM2.5 concentrations in January might cause 690 (95% confidence interval (CI): (490, 890)) premature deaths, 45,350 (95% CI: (21,640, 57,860)) acute bronchitis and 23,720 (95% CI: (17,090, 29,710)) asthma cases in Beijing area. Results of the economic losses assessments suggest that the haze in January 2013 might lead to 253.8 (95% CI: (170.2, 331.2)) million US$ losses, accounting for 0.08% (95% CI: (0.05%, 0.1%)) of the total 2013 annual gross domestic product (GDP) of Beijing.
雾霾是中国,特别是北京及周边地区面临的严重空气污染问题,影响能见度、公众健康和区域气候。本研究利用中尺度气象-化学模式(WRF-Chem)模拟 2013 年北京重霾事件期间的 PM2.5(空气动力学直径≤2.5μm 的颗粒物)浓度,并基于模式结果计算健康影响和与健康相关的经济损失。与地面监测数据相比,模型结果准确反映了污染浓度(北京、天津、香河和兴隆站模拟与实测 PM2.5 的相关系数分别为 0.7、0.4、0.5 和 0.6)。健康影响评估显示,1 月的 PM2.5 浓度可能导致 690 例(95%置信区间:(490,890))过早死亡、45350 例(95%置信区间:(21640,57860))急性支气管炎和 23720 例(95%置信区间:(17090,29710))哮喘病例。经济损失评估结果表明,2013 年 1 月的雾霾可能导致 2.538 亿美元(95%置信区间:(1.702,3.312))的损失,占北京 2013 年国内生产总值(GDP)的 0.08%(95%置信区间:(0.05%,0.1%))。