Hardt J, Bernert S, Matschinger H, Angermeier M C, Vilagut G, Bruffaerts R, de Girolamo G, de Graaf R, Haro J M, Kovess V, Alonso J
Medizinische Psychologie und Medizinische Soziologie, Klinik für Psycho-somatische Medizin und Psychotherapie, Universitätsmedizin Mainz, Germany.
Institute of Medical Sociology, Department of Rehabilitation Research, Charité - University Medicine Berlin.
J Affect Disord. 2015 Apr 1;175:168-74. doi: 10.1016/j.jad.2014.12.044. Epub 2015 Jan 9.
Suicidality constitutes a major health concern in many countries. The aim of the present paper was to analyse 10 of its risk factors and their interdependence.
Data on suicidality, mental disorders and experience of childhood violence was collected from 8796 respondents in the European Study of the Epidemiology of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD). The CIDI was used to assess mental disorders. Individuals were randomly divided into two subgroups. In one, a Graphical Markov model to predict suicidality was constructed, in the second, predictors were cross-validated.
Lifetime suicidality was predicted mainly by lifetime depression and early experiences of violence, with a pseudo R-square of 12.8%. In addition, alcohol disorders predicted suicidality, but played a minor role compared with the other risk factors in this sample.
In addition to depression, early experience of violence constitutes an important risk factor of suicidality.
This is a cross-sectional and retrospective study assessing risk factors for suicidality, not for suicide itself.
自杀倾向在许多国家都是一个主要的健康问题。本文旨在分析其10个风险因素及其相互依存关系。
在欧洲精神障碍流行病学研究（ESEMeD）中，从8796名受访者那里收集了有关自杀倾向、精神障碍和童年暴力经历的数据。使用复合国际诊断访谈（CIDI）来评估精神障碍。个体被随机分为两个亚组。在其中一个亚组中，构建了一个预测自杀倾向的图形马尔可夫模型，在另一个亚组中，对预测因素进行交叉验证。
终生自杀倾向主要由终生抑郁和早期暴力经历预测，伪决定系数为12.8%。此外，酒精障碍可预测自杀倾向，但在该样本中与其他风险因素相比作用较小。
除了抑郁之外，早期暴力经历是自杀倾向的一个重要风险因素。
这是一项横断面回顾性研究，评估的是自杀倾向的风险因素，而非自杀本身的风险因素。
