Parravicini Valeriano, Azzurro Ernesto, Kulbicki Michel, Belmaker Jonathan
CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, LABEX 'CORAIL', University of Perpignan, 66860, Perpignan, France; IRD - UR 227 CoReUs, LABEX 'CORAIL', Laboratoire Arago, BP 44, 66651, Banyuls/mer, France; CESAB-FRB, Immeuble Henri Poincaré, Domaine du Petit Arbois, Avenue Louis Philibert, 13857, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 3, France.
Ecol Lett. 2015 Mar;18(3):246-53. doi: 10.1111/ele.12401. Epub 2015 Jan 27.
Climatic niche conservatism, the tendency of species-climate associations to remain unchanged across space and time, is pivotal for forecasting the spread of invasive species and biodiversity changes. Indeed, it represents one of the key assumptions underlying species distribution models (SDMs), the main tool currently available for predicting range shifts of species. However, to date, no comprehensive assessment of niche conservatism is available for the marine realm. We use the invasion by Indo-Pacific tropical fishes into the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine basin, to examine the conservatism of the climatic niche. We show that tropical invaders may spread far beyond their native niches and that SDMs do not predict their new distributions better than null models. Our results suggest that SDMs may underestimate the potential spread of invasive species and call for prudence in employing these models in order to forecast species invasion and their response to environmental change.
气候生态位保守性，即物种与气候的关联在空间和时间上保持不变的趋势，对于预测入侵物种的扩散和生物多样性变化至关重要。实际上，它是物种分布模型（SDMs）的关键假设之一，而SDMs是目前用于预测物种分布范围变化的主要工具。然而，迄今为止，尚未对海洋领域的生态位保守性进行全面评估。我们利用印度-太平洋热带鱼类入侵地中海（世界上受入侵最严重的海洋盆地）的事件，来研究气候生态位的保守性。我们发现热带入侵者可能扩散到远远超出其原生生态位的范围，并且SDMs对其新分布的预测并不比空模型更好。我们的结果表明，SDMs可能低估了入侵物种的潜在扩散范围，并呼吁在使用这些模型来预测物种入侵及其对环境变化的反应时要谨慎。
