Weon Byung Mook
School of Advanced Materials Science and Engineering, SKKU Advanced Institute of Nanotechnology (SAINT), Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, 440-746, Korea,
Biogerontology. 2015 Jun;16(3):375-81. doi: 10.1007/s10522-015-9555-2. Epub 2015 Feb 4.
As humans live longer, the precise modeling of mortality curves in very old age is becoming more important in aging research and public health. Here, we address a methodology that utilizes a modified stretched exponential survival function where a stretched exponent is relevant to heterogeneity in human populations. This function allows better estimation of the maximum human lifespan by providing a good description of the mortality curves in very old age. Demographic analysis of Swedish females over three recent decades revealed an important trend: the maximum human lifespan (existing around 125 years) gradually decreased at a constant rate of ~1.6 years per decade, while the characteristic life gradually increased at a constant rate of ~1.2 years per decade. This trend indicates that the number of aging people is increasingly concentrated at very old age, which is consistent with the definition of population aging. Importantly analyzing the stretched exponents would help in evaluating the heterogeneity trends in human populations.
随着人类寿命的延长，在衰老研究和公共卫生领域，对高龄人群死亡率曲线进行精确建模变得越发重要。在此，我们探讨一种方法，该方法采用了修正的拉伸指数生存函数，其中拉伸指数与人群中的异质性相关。通过对高龄人群死亡率曲线的良好描述，此函数能更好地估计人类的最大寿命。对瑞典近三十年女性的人口统计学分析揭示了一个重要趋势：人类的最大寿命（约125岁）以每十年约1.6岁的恒定速率逐渐下降，而特征寿命则以每十年约1.2岁的恒定速率逐渐增加。这一趋势表明，老龄人口数量越来越集中在高龄阶段，这与人口老龄化的定义相符。重要的是，分析拉伸指数将有助于评估人群中的异质性趋势。
