Zhao Jiaying, Kelly Matthew, Bain Chris, Seubsman Sam-Ang, Sleigh Adrian
Glob J Health Sci. 2015;7(1):107-14. doi: 10.5539/gjhs.v7n1p107.
Thailand is experiencing a development-associated health-risk transition with increasing prominence of chronic diseases. We aim to determine the risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in Thailand. We conducted longitudinal analyses of deaths in the nationwide Thai Cohort Study from 2005 to 2010 (n=86866)using national vital registration data. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to calculate mutually adjusted estimates of association between dying from CVD and various risk factors measured at baseline in 2005.For three important risks, population attributable fractions were calculated. There were 78 CVD deaths. The probability of dying from CVD for males was 0.15% and for females was 0.04%. Multivariate modelling showed that current smoking (OR=4.01, CI=2.02-7.93), hypertension (OR=l.91, CI=0.95-3.85), and diabetes (OR=2.51,CI=l.Ol-6.25) are major risk factors of CVD deaths. For males, 54% of CVD deaths can be attributed to smoking. Females are protected by very low rates of smoking. Ischaemic heart disease (OR=6.85, CI=2.47-19.01)is also a strong predictor of CVD deaths. As CVD is a top cause of death, reducing CVD mortality by controlling smoking, hypertension, and hyperglycaemia will substantially improve life expectancy in Thailand today. The low smoking rates among females need to be actively maintained and confer great benefit.
泰国正经历与发展相关的健康风险转变，慢性病日益突出。我们旨在确定泰国心血管疾病（CVD）死亡的风险因素。我们利用国家人口动态登记数据，对2005年至2010年全国泰国队列研究中的死亡情况进行了纵向分析（n = 86866）。使用多变量逻辑回归模型来计算2005年基线时测量的死于CVD与各种风险因素之间相互调整后的关联估计值。对于三个重要风险因素，计算了人群归因分数。共有78例CVD死亡。男性死于CVD的概率为0.15%，女性为0.04%。多变量建模显示，当前吸烟（OR = 4.01，CI = 2.02 - 7.93）、高血压（OR = 1.91，CI = 0.95 - 3.85）和糖尿病（OR = 2.51，CI = 1.01 - 6.25）是CVD死亡的主要风险因素。对于男性，54%的CVD死亡可归因于吸烟。女性因吸烟率极低而受到保护。缺血性心脏病（OR = 6.85，CI = 2.47 - 19.01）也是CVD死亡的有力预测因素。由于CVD是首要死因，通过控制吸烟、高血压和高血糖来降低CVD死亡率将大幅提高当今泰国的预期寿命。女性的低吸烟率需要积极维持，并带来巨大益处。
