Białek Michał, Markiewicz Łukasz, Sawicki Przemysław
Economic Psychology Department, Centre for Economic Psychology and Decision Sciences, Kozminski University Warsaw, Poland.
Front Psychol. 2015 Jan 28;6:23. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00023. eCollection 2015.
The delayed lotteries are much more common in everyday life than are pure lotteries. Usually, we need to wait to find out the outcome of the risky decision (e.g., investing in a stock market, engaging in a relationship). However, most research has studied the time discounting and probability discounting in isolation using the methodologies designed specifically to track changes in one parameter. Most commonly used method is adjusting, but its reported validity and time stability in research on discounting are suboptimal. The goal of this study was to introduce the novel method for analyzing delayed lotteries-conjoint analysis-which hypothetically is more suitable for analyzing individual preferences in this area. A set of two studies compared the conjoint analysis with adjusting. The results suggest that individual parameters of discounting strength estimated with conjoint have higher predictive value (Study 1 and 2), and they are more stable over time (Study 2) compared to adjusting. We discuss these findings, despite the exploratory character of reported studies, by suggesting that future research on delayed lotteries should be cross-validated using both methods.
延迟抽奖在日常生活中比纯粹抽奖更为常见。通常，我们需要等待才能得知风险决策的结果（例如，投资股票市场、建立恋爱关系）。然而，大多数研究使用专门设计用于跟踪一个参数变化的方法，孤立地研究时间折扣和概率折扣。最常用的方法是调整法，但其在折扣研究中报告的有效性和时间稳定性并不理想。本研究的目的是引入一种用于分析延迟抽奖的新方法——联合分析，假设该方法更适合分析这一领域的个体偏好。一组两项研究将联合分析与调整法进行了比较。结果表明，与调整法相比，用联合分析估计的折扣强度个体参数具有更高的预测价值（研究1和2），并且随着时间推移更稳定（研究2）。尽管所报告的研究具有探索性，但我们讨论了这些发现，并建议未来关于延迟抽奖的研究应使用这两种方法进行交叉验证。
