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从专家的角度出发能否消除人类决策中的偏差?以风险和延迟收益为例。

Can taking the perspective of an expert debias human decisions? The case of risky and delayed gains.

作者信息

Białek Michał, Sawicki Przemysław

机构信息

Department of Economic Psychology, Centre for Economic Psychology and Decision Sciences, Kozminski University Warsaw, Poland.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2014 Sep 4;5:989. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00989. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

In several previously reported studies, participants increased their normative correctness after being instructed to think hypothetically, specifically taking the perspective of an expert or researcher (Beatty and Thompson, 2012; Morsanyi and Handley, 2012). The goal of this paper was to investigate how this manipulation affects risky or delayed payoffs. In two studies, participants (n = 193) were tested online (in exchange for money) using the adjusting procedure. Individuals produced certain/immediate equivalents for risky/delayed gains. Participants in the control group were solving the problem from their own perspective, while participants in the experimental group were asked to imagine "what would a reliable and honest advisor advise them to do." Study 1 showed that when taking the perspective of an expert, participants in experimental group became more risk aversive compared to participants in the control group. Additionally, their certain equivalents diverged from the expected value to a greater extent. The results obtained from the experimental group in Study 2 suggest that participants became less impulsive, which means they tried to inhibit their preferences. This favors the explanation, which suggests that the perspective shift forced individuals to override their intuitions with the social norms. Individuals expect to be blamed for impatience or risk taking thus expected an expert to advise them to be more patient and risk aversive.

摘要

在之前的几项研究中,参与者在被指示进行假设性思考后,尤其是从专家或研究人员的角度思考后,其规范性正确性有所提高(贝蒂和汤普森,2012年;莫尔萨尼和汉德利,2012年)。本文的目的是研究这种操作如何影响风险或延迟收益。在两项研究中,使用调整程序对193名参与者进行了在线测试(参与者可获得报酬)。参与者针对风险/延迟收益给出确定/即时等价物。对照组的参与者从自身角度解决问题,而实验组的参与者则被要求想象“一位可靠且诚实的顾问会建议他们怎么做”。研究1表明,当从专家角度思考时,实验组的参与者比对照组的参与者变得更加厌恶风险。此外,他们的确定等价物与预期价值的差异更大。研究2中实验组得到的结果表明,参与者变得不那么冲动,这意味着他们试图抑制自己的偏好。这支持了一种解释,即视角转变迫使个体用社会规范来推翻自己的直觉。个体预计会因不耐烦或冒险而受到指责,因此期望专家建议他们更有耐心并厌恶风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0161/4154394/62a8cd92a789/fpsyg-05-00989-g001.jpg

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