Ketola T, Saarinen K
Department of Biological and Environmental Science, Centre of Excellence in Biological Interactions, University of Jyvaskyla, Jyvaskyla, Finland.
J Evol Biol. 2015 Apr;28(4):800-6. doi: 10.1111/jeb.12606. Epub 2015 Mar 16.
The ability to predict the consequences of fluctuating environments on species distribution and extinction often relies on determining the tolerances of species or genotypes in different constant environments (i.e. determining tolerance curves). However, very little is known about the suitability of measurements made in constant environments to predict the level of adaptation to rapidly fluctuating environments. To explore this question, we used bacterial clones adapted to constant or fluctuating temperatures and found that measurements across a range of constant temperatures did not indicate any adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. However, adaptation to fluctuating temperatures was only apparent if growth was measured during thermal fluctuation. Thus, tolerance curves based on measurements in constant environments can be misleading in predicting the ability to tolerate fast environmental fluctuations. Such complications could lead to false estimates of the genetic merits of genotypes and extinction risks of species due to climate change-induced thermal fluctuations.
预测波动环境对物种分布和灭绝的影响，通常依赖于确定物种或基因型在不同恒定环境中的耐受性（即确定耐受曲线）。然而，对于在恒定环境中进行的测量能否适用于预测对快速波动环境的适应水平，我们知之甚少。为了探究这个问题，我们使用了适应恒定或波动温度的细菌克隆，发现一系列恒定温度下的测量结果并未显示出对波动温度的任何适应性。然而，只有在温度波动期间测量生长时，对波动温度的适应性才会显现出来。因此，基于恒定环境测量得出的耐受曲线，在预测耐受快速环境波动的能力时可能会产生误导。由于气候变化引起的温度波动，此类复杂情况可能导致对基因型遗传价值和物种灭绝风险的错误估计。
