Xu Xiaoheng, Wang Yi, Wei Fengsi, Feng Xueshang, Bo Manhui, Tang Hongwu, Wang Diansheng, Bian Lei, Wang Boyi, Zuo Pingbing, Jiang Chaowei, Xu Xiaojun, Zhou Zilu, Li Zeng, Zou Peng, Li Yun, Zeng Liang, Zhu Xiaoxing
State Key Laboratory of Solar Activity and Space Weather, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China.
Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Numerical Prediction for Space Storm, School of Aerospace, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 2;15(1):22969. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07137-9.
The long-chain effects of eruptive solar activities on Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and the mid-to-lower atmospheric circulation are an important theoretical research topic in the fields of space weather and atmospheric science. Understanding the impact of space weather on aviation holds substantial economic value. It is well-known that flight times for polar routes may increase during solar proton events (SPEs) due to the necessity of avoiding high-energy particles. However, changes in atmospheric circulation due to SPEs and their impact on flight times have not been reported yet. This study systematically analyzed 15 pairs of representative international air routes, comprising a total of 16,037 flight records affected by the polar jet stream between 2015 and 2019. An unpaired two-sample two-tailed t-test revealed that 86.67% of westbound flights had shorter durations, while 86.67% of eastbound flights had longer durations during SPEs compared to quiet periods, with an average change of approximately 7 min. Further investigation into 42 SPEs during an entire solar cycle (11 years) indicates that the poleward shift of the polar jet stream, associated with high-energy particle precipitation, is the fundamental reason for the asymmetrical changes in flight times. This is the first report detailing the impact of SPEs on atmospheric circulation and flight times. Our findings reveal the long-chain mechanism by which SPEs directly influence the circulation of Earth's lower atmosphere. These results are also crucial for aviation, as they can help airlines optimize routes, reduce fuel costs, and contribute to climate change mitigation efforts.
太阳爆发活动对地球磁层、电离层以及中低层大气环流的长期影响是空间天气和大气科学领域的一个重要理论研究课题。了解空间天气对航空的影响具有重大经济价值。众所周知,在太阳质子事件(SPEs)期间,由于需要避开高能粒子,极地航线的飞行时间可能会增加。然而,尚未有关于SPEs引起的大气环流变化及其对飞行时间影响的报道。本研究系统分析了15对具有代表性的国际航线,这些航线在2015年至2019年期间共有16037条受极地急流影响的飞行记录。非配对双样本双尾t检验显示,与平静期相比,在SPEs期间,86.67%的西行航班飞行时间缩短,而86.67%的东行航班飞行时间延长,平均变化约为7分钟。对一个完整太阳周期(11年)内的42次SPEs进行的进一步调查表明,与高能粒子沉降相关的极地急流向极地方向移动是飞行时间不对称变化的根本原因。这是第一份详细报道SPEs对大气环流和飞行时间影响的报告。我们的研究结果揭示了SPEs直接影响地球低层大气环流的长期机制。这些结果对航空业也至关重要,因为它们可以帮助航空公司优化航线、降低燃油成本,并为缓解气候变化做出贡献。