Bartnicki Jerzy, Amundsen Ingar, Brown Justin, Hosseini Ali, Hov Øystein, Haakenstad Hilde, Klein Heiko, Lind Ole Christian, Salbu Brit, Szacinski Wendel Cato C, Ytre-Eide Martin Album
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, NO-0313 Oslo, Norway; Centre for Environmental Radioactivity, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Ås, Norway.
Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Grini Næringspark 13, NO-1361 Østerås, Norway.
J Environ Radioact. 2016 Jan;151 Pt 2:404-16. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2015.02.025. Epub 2015 Mar 21.
The Russian nuclear submarine K-27 suffered a loss of coolant accident in 1968 and with nuclear fuel in both reactors it was scuttled in 1981 in the outer part of Stepovogo Bay located on the eastern coast of Novaya Zemlya. The inventory of spent nuclear fuel on board the submarine is of concern because it represents a potential source of radioactive contamination of the Kara Sea and a criticality accident with potential for long-range atmospheric transport of radioactive particles cannot be ruled out. To address these concerns and to provide a better basis for evaluating possible radiological impacts of potential releases in case a salvage operation is initiated, we assessed the atmospheric transport of radionuclides and deposition in Norway from a hypothetical criticality accident on board the K-27. To achieve this, a long term (33 years) meteorological database has been prepared and used for selection of the worst case meteorological scenarios for each of three selected locations of the potential accident. Next, the dispersion model SNAP was run with the source term for the worst-case accident scenario and selected meteorological scenarios. The results showed predictions to be very sensitive to the estimation of the source term for the worst-case accident and especially to the sizes and densities of released radioactive particles. The results indicated that a large area of Norway could be affected, but that the deposition in Northern Norway would be considerably higher than in other areas of the country. The simulations showed that deposition from the worst-case scenario of a hypothetical K-27 accident would be at least two orders of magnitude lower than the deposition observed in Norway following the Chernobyl accident.
1968年，俄罗斯核潜艇K-27发生了冷却剂流失事故，由于两个反应堆都装有核燃料，该潜艇于1981年在新地岛东海岸的斯捷波沃戈湾外被凿沉。潜艇上乏核燃料的存量令人担忧，因为它是喀拉海潜在的放射性污染源，而且不能排除发生临界事故并导致放射性粒子进行远距离大气传输的可能性。为解决这些问题，并为评估在启动打捞行动时潜在释放可能产生的放射性影响提供更好的依据，我们评估了K-27潜艇上假设的临界事故中放射性核素在挪威的大气传输和沉降情况。为此，我们编制了一个长期（33年）气象数据库，并用于为三个选定的潜在事故地点中的每一个选择最坏情况的气象情景。接下来，使用最坏情况事故情景的源项和选定的气象情景运行扩散模型SNAP。结果表明，预测结果对最坏情况事故源项的估计非常敏感，尤其是对释放的放射性粒子的大小和密度。结果表明，挪威的大片地区可能会受到影响，但挪威北部的沉降量将大大高于该国其他地区。模拟结果表明，假设的K-27事故最坏情况情景下的沉降量将比切尔诺贝利事故后在挪威观测到的沉降量至少低两个数量级。
