McNown R, Rogers A
Population Program, University of Colorado, Boulder 80309.
Demography. 1989 Nov;26(4):645-60.
This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of changes in long-run mortality patterns. This pilot study demonstrates that the proposed procedure produces medium-range forecasts of mortality that meet the standard tests of accuracy in forecast evaluation and that are sensible when evaluated against the comparable forecasts produced by the Social Security Administration.
本文将参数化模型死亡率表与时间序列方法相结合，以预测到2000年美国的死亡率。使用模型死亡率表能够相对简洁地呈现1900年至1985年按年龄和性别划分的死亡率历史，而运用现代时间序列方法将这段历史向前延伸至本世纪末，有助于灵活地对趋势进行建模，并适应长期死亡率模式的变化。这项初步研究表明，所提出的程序能够生成死亡率的中期预测，这些预测在预测评估中符合准确性的标准测试，并且与社会保障管理局生成的可比预测相比，是合理的。
