Wang Linqi, Zhang Kun, Xu Li, Wang Jin
Center of Theoretical Physics, College of Physics, Jilin University, Changchun, Jilin, 130012, China.
State Key Laboratory of Electroanalytical Chemistry, Changchun Institute of Applied Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin, 130022, China.
PNAS Nexus. 2024 Jun 26;3(7):pgae237. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae237. eCollection 2024 Jul.
The study of infectious diseases holds significant scientific and societal importance, yet current research on the mechanisms of disease emergence and prediction methods still face challenging issues. This research uses the landscape and flux theoretical framework to reveal the non-equilibrium dynamics of adaptive infectious diseases and uncover its underlying physical mechanism. This allows the quantification of dynamics, characterizing the system with two basins of attraction determined by gradient and rotational flux forces. Quantification of entropy production rates provides insights into the system deviating from equilibrium and associated dissipative costs. The study identifies early warning indicators for the critical transition, emphasizing the advantage of observing time irreversibility from time series over theoretical entropy production and flux. The presence of rotational flux leads to an irreversible pathway between disease states. Through global sensitivity analysis, we identified the key factors influencing infectious diseases. In summary, this research offers valuable insights into infectious disease dynamics and presents a practical approach for predicting the onset of critical transition, addressing existing research gaps.
传染病研究具有重大的科学和社会意义，但目前关于疾病出现机制和预测方法的研究仍面临挑战性问题。本研究使用景观和通量理论框架来揭示适应性传染病的非平衡动力学，并揭示其潜在的物理机制。这使得能够对动力学进行量化，用由梯度和旋转通量力确定的两个吸引盆来表征系统。熵产生率的量化提供了对系统偏离平衡及相关耗散成本的见解。该研究确定了临界转变的早期预警指标，强调了从时间序列观察时间不可逆性相对于理论熵产生和通量的优势。旋转通量的存在导致疾病状态之间的不可逆途径。通过全局敏感性分析，我们确定了影响传染病的关键因素。总之，本研究为传染病动力学提供了有价值的见解，并提出了一种预测临界转变发生的实用方法，填补了现有研究空白。
