Riley Steven, Eames Ken, Isham Valerie, Mollison Denis, Trapman Pieter
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:68-71. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.07.001. Epub 2014 Jul 31.
Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity.
传染病发病率数据越来越多地以个体层面提供,并且包含高分辨率的空间成分。因此,我们现在更有能力挑战那些明确表示空间的模型。在此,我们考虑空间疾病动态中的五个主题:网络模型的构建;表征阈值行为;对长距离相互作用进行建模;干预的适当规模;以及人群异质性的表示。