Herring Carlie E, Stinson Jonah, Landis Wayne G
Institute of Environmental Toxicology, Huxley College of the Environment, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2015 Oct;11(4):640-52. doi: 10.1002/ieam.1643. Epub 2015 Jun 26.
Many coastal regions are encountering issues with the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS). In this study, we conducted a regional risk assessment using a Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) to analyze multiple vectors of NIS introductions to Padilla Bay, Washington, a National Estuarine Research Reserve. We had 3 objectives in this study. The 1st objective was to determine whether the BN-RRM could be used to calculate risk from NIS introductions for Padilla Bay. Our 2nd objective was to determine which regions and endpoints were at greatest risk from NIS introductions. Our 3rd objective was to incorporate a management option into the model and predict endpoint risk if it were to be implemented. Eradication can occur at different stages of NIS invasions, such as the elimination of these species before being introduced to the habitat or removal of the species after settlement. We incorporated the ballast water treatment management scenario into the model, observed the risk to the endpoints, and compared this risk with the initial risk estimates. The model results indicated that the southern portion of the bay was at greatest risk because of NIS. Changes in community composition, Dungeness crab, and eelgrass were the endpoints most at risk from NIS introductions. The currents node, which controls the exposure of NIS to the bay from the surrounding marine environment, was the parameter that had the greatest influence on risk. The ballast water management scenario displayed an approximate 1% reduction in risk in this Padilla Bay case study. The models we developed provide an adaptable template for decision makers interested in managing NIS in other coastal regions and large bodies of water.
许多沿海地区都面临着非本土物种（NIS）扩散的问题。在本研究中，我们使用贝叶斯网络相对风险模型（BN-RRM）进行了区域风险评估，以分析NIS引入华盛顿州帕迪拉湾（一个国家河口研究保护区）的多种途径。我们在本研究中有3个目标。第一个目标是确定BN-RRM是否可用于计算帕迪拉湾NIS引入的风险。我们的第二个目标是确定哪些区域和终点受NIS引入的风险最大。我们的第三个目标是将一种管理方案纳入模型，并预测如果实施该方案，终点的风险。根除可以发生在NIS入侵的不同阶段，例如在这些物种被引入栖息地之前将其消灭，或者在其定居后将其清除。我们将压载水处理管理方案纳入模型，观察对终点的风险，并将此风险与初始风险估计值进行比较。模型结果表明，由于NIS的存在，该湾的南部风险最大。群落组成、邓杰内斯蟹和大叶藻的变化是受NIS引入风险最大的终点。控制NIS从周围海洋环境进入该湾的水流节点是对风险影响最大的参数。在这个帕迪拉湾案例研究中，压载水管理方案显示风险降低了约1%。我们开发的模型为有兴趣在其他沿海地区和大型水体中管理NIS的决策者提供了一个可适应的模板。
