Pless I B, Peckham C S, Power C
Department of Pediatrics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
J Pediatr. 1989 Dec;115(6):932-8. doi: 10.1016/s0022-3476(89)80745-0.
Data from a sample of more than 16,000 children born in the United Kingdom in 1958 were studied to identify factors that may affect the risk of having a traffic injury. Five sets of risk factors were examined: physical, developmental, educational, behavioral, and family. Information about these factors were obtained systematically from parents, teachers, and physicians when the children were 7 and 11 years of age. The results were related to traffic injuries occurring for the first time during each subsequent 4-year period. Between 8 and 11 years of age, 431 children had a traffic injury requiring medical attention, and between 12 and 16 years the number was 590. Logistic regression analyses identified a small number of factors associated with injuries, which varied according to the age and gender of the child. When all these factors were entered into a final model, only five remained: fidgety, abnormal behavior, and three measures of family disruption or disadvantage--crowding, family problems, and being removed from the family and placed in the care of the local authority. These findings suggest that it may be unwise to place much reliance on "high risk" preventive strategies by measures of this kind. Instead, more emphasis should be placed on community-based passive and environmental strategies.
对1958年在英国出生的16000多名儿童的样本数据进行了研究，以确定可能影响交通伤害风险的因素。研究了五组风险因素：身体因素、发育因素、教育因素、行为因素和家庭因素。当这些孩子7岁和11岁时，系统地从家长、教师和医生那里获取了有关这些因素的信息。研究结果与随后每4年期间首次发生的交通伤害情况相关。在8至11岁之间，有431名儿童发生了需要医疗护理的交通伤害，在12至16岁之间，这一数字为590。逻辑回归分析确定了一些与伤害相关的因素，这些因素因儿童的年龄和性别而异。当将所有这些因素纳入最终模型时，只剩下五个因素：坐立不安、行为异常，以及家庭破裂或不利状况的三个指标——拥挤、家庭问题，以及被从家庭中带走并交由地方当局照顾。这些发现表明，过度依赖这类措施的“高风险”预防策略可能是不明智的。相反，应该更加重视基于社区的被动和环境策略。
