Shang Ce, Chaloupka Frank J, Fong Geoffrey T, Thompson Mary, O'Connor Richard J
Health Policy Center, Institute for Health Research and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Health Policy Center, Institute for Health Research and Policy, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA WHO Collaborating Centre on the Economics of Tobacco and Tobacco Control.
Tob Control. 2015 Jul;24 Suppl 3(0 3):iii88-iii93. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2014-051771. Epub 2015 Apr 8.
Recent studies have shown that more opportunities exist for tax avoidance when cigarette excise tax structure departs from a uniform specific structure. However, the association between tax structure and cigarette price variability has not been thoroughly studied in the existing literature.
To examine how cigarette tax structure is associated with price variability. The variability of self-reported prices is measured using the ratios of differences between higher and lower prices to the median price such as the IQR-to-median ratio.
We used survey data taken from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project in 17 countries to conduct the analysis. Cigarette prices were derived using individual purchase information and aggregated to price variability measures for each surveyed country and wave. The effect of tax structures on price variability was estimated using Generalised Estimating Equations after adjusting for year and country attributes.
Our study provides empirical evidence of a relationship between tax structure and cigarette price variability. We find that, compared to the specific uniform tax structure, mixed uniform and tiered (specific, ad valorem or mixed) structures are associated with greater price variability (p≤0.01). Moreover, while a greater share of the specific component in total excise taxes is associated with lower price variability (p≤0.05), a tiered tax structure is associated with greater price variability (p≤0.01). The results suggest that a uniform and specific tax structure is the most effective tax structure for reducing tobacco consumption and prevalence by limiting price variability and decreasing opportunities for tax avoidance.
近期研究表明，当卷烟消费税结构偏离统一的从量税结构时，存在更多避税机会。然而，现有文献中尚未对税收结构与卷烟价格可变性之间的关联进行深入研究。
研究卷烟税收结构与价格可变性之间的关联。使用较高价格与较低价格之差与中位数价格的比率（如四分位距与中位数比率）来衡量自我报告价格的可变性。
我们使用了来自17个国家的国际烟草控制政策评估（ITC）项目的调查数据进行分析。利用个人购买信息得出卷烟价格，并汇总为每个被调查国家及调查轮次的价格可变性指标。在对年份和国家属性进行调整后，使用广义估计方程估计税收结构对价格可变性的影响。
我们的研究为税收结构与卷烟价格可变性之间的关系提供了实证证据。我们发现，与统一的从量税结构相比，混合的统一税和分级税（从量税、从价税或混合税）结构与更大的价格可变性相关（p≤0.01）。此外，虽然消费税总额中从量税部分占比越大，价格可变性越低（p≤0.05），但分级税结构与更大的价格可变性相关（p≤0.01）。结果表明，统一的从量税结构是通过限制价格可变性和减少避税机会来减少烟草消费和流行率的最有效税收结构。
