Kilian Albert, Koenker Hannah, Obi Emmanuel, Selby Richmond A, Fotheringham Megan, Lynch Matthew
Tropical Health LLP, Montagut, Spain.
Malaria Consortium, London, UK.
Malar J. 2015 Mar 24;14:123. doi: 10.1186/s12936-015-0640-4.
With the recent publication of WHO-recommended methods to estimate net survival, comparative analyses from different areas have now become possible. With this in mind, a study was undertaken in Nigeria to compare the performance of a specific long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) product in three socio-ecologically different areas. In addition, the objective was to assess the feasibility of a retrospective study design for durability.
In three states, Zamfara in the north, Nasarawa in the centre and Cross River in the south, four local government areas were selected one year after mass distribution of 100-denier polyester LLINs. From a representative sample of 300 households per site that had received campaign nets, an assessment of net survival was made based on rate of loss of nets and the physical condition of surviving nets measured by the proportionate hole index (pHI). Surveys were repeated after two and three years.
Over the three-year period 98% of the targeted sample size of 3,720 households was obtained and 94% of the 5,669 campaign nets found were assessed for damage. With increasing time since distribution, recall of having received campaign nets dropped by 11-22% and only 31-87% of nets actually lost were reported. Using a recall bias adjustment, attrition rates were fairly similar in all three sites. The proportion of surviving nets in serviceable condition differed dramatically, however, resulting in an estimated median net survival of 3.0 years in Nasarawa, 4.5 years in Cross River and 4.7 years in Zamfara. Although repairs on damaged nets increased from around 10% at baseline to 21-38% after three years, the average pHI value for each of the four hole size categories did not differ between repaired and unrepaired nets.
First, the differences observed in net survival are driven by living conditions and household behaviours and not the LLIN material. Second, recall bias in a retrospective durability study can be significant and while adjustments can be made, enough uncertainty remains that prospective studies on durability are preferable wherever possible. Third, repair does not seem to measurably improve net condition and focus should, therefore, be on improving preventive behaviour.
随着世界卫生组织推荐的净生存估计方法的近期发表,现在已能够对不同地区进行比较分析。考虑到这一点,在尼日利亚开展了一项研究,以比较一种特定长效驱虫蚊帐(LLIN)产品在三个社会生态不同地区的性能。此外,目的是评估回顾性研究设计用于耐久性研究的可行性。
在北部的赞法拉州、中部的纳萨拉瓦州和南部的克罗斯河州,在大规模分发100旦聚酯LLIN蚊帐一年后,各选择了四个地方政府辖区。从每个地点接受活动蚊帐的300户代表性家庭样本中,根据蚊帐损失率和用比例孔洞指数(pHI)衡量的幸存蚊帐的物理状况对净生存进行评估。在两年和三年后重复进行调查。
在三年期间,获得了目标样本量3720户家庭中的98%,并对找到的5669顶活动蚊帐中的94%进行了损坏评估。随着分发后时间的增加,回忆起收到活动蚊帐的比例下降了11%-22%,实际损失的蚊帐中只有31%-87%被报告。使用回忆偏差调整后,所有三个地点的损耗率相当相似。然而,处于可用状态的幸存蚊帐比例差异很大,导致纳萨拉瓦州的估计蚊帐中位净生存时间为3.0年,克罗斯河州为4.5年,赞法拉州为4.7年。尽管损坏蚊帐的修复率从基线时的约10%增加到三年后的21%-38%,但四个孔洞尺寸类别中每个类别的平均pHI值在修复和未修复的蚊帐之间没有差异。
第一,观察到的蚊帐净生存差异是由生活条件和家庭行为驱动的,而不是LLIN材料。第二,回顾性耐久性研究中的回忆偏差可能很大,虽然可以进行调整,但仍存在足够的不确定性,因此只要有可能,对耐久性进行前瞻性研究更可取。第三,修复似乎并没有显著改善蚊帐状况,因此应将重点放在改善预防行为上。