Li Zhao-Lun, Deng Qian, Chong Tie, Zhang Peng, Li He-Cheng, Li Hong-Liang, Chen Hai-Wen, Gan Wei-Min
Department of Urology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Medical College, Xi'an Jiaotong University, 157 Xiwu Road, Xi'an, 710061, China.
Urolithiasis. 2015 Aug;43(4):355-61. doi: 10.1007/s00240-015-0771-7. Epub 2015 Apr 21.
To investigate all the predictors of operative duration, hospital stay and stone-free rate post-minimally invasive percutaneous nephrolithotomy (MPCNL) and to establish a logistic regression formula to predict the probability of stone-free post-MPCNL. From August 2009 to August 2012, 396 patients were enrolled in the present study. The patients' characteristics, history, laboratory examination and imaging information were used as independent variables, and operative duration, hospital stay, residuals (≥4 mm) as outcomes. Univariate and multiple regression analysis were performed to determine independent variables. According to the result of multiple logistic regression analysis, a logistic regression formula was established to predict the stone-free probability post-MPCNL. The predictors of operative duration were type of stones and stone burden. Factors affecting hospital stay included leucocytes, stone burden, type of stones and hemoglobin. Residuals were significantly related with stone burden and type of stones. With the above results, we developed a logistic regression formula, which can effectively predict the probability of stone-free with 91.7% of sensitivity, 70.4% of specificity and 85.9% of overall accuracy.
研究微创经皮肾镜取石术（MPCNL）后手术时长、住院时间和结石清除率的所有预测因素，并建立逻辑回归公式以预测MPCNL术后结石清除的概率。2009年8月至2012年8月，本研究纳入了396例患者。将患者的特征、病史、实验室检查和影像学信息作为自变量，手术时长、住院时间、残余结石（≥4mm）作为结果变量。进行单因素和多因素回归分析以确定自变量。根据多因素逻辑回归分析结果，建立逻辑回归公式以预测MPCNL术后结石清除概率。手术时长的预测因素为结石类型和结石负荷。影响住院时间的因素包括白细胞、结石负荷、结石类型和血红蛋白。残余结石与结石负荷和结石类型显著相关。基于上述结果，我们建立了一个逻辑回归公式，其可有效预测结石清除概率，灵敏度为91.7%，特异度为70.4%，总准确率为85.9%。
