[Outbreaks of asthma attacks and meteorological parameters--multivariate analysis].

The correlation between patient visits and meteorological parameters was analyzed among asthmatic children who visited the out-patient emergency clinic at the Teikyo University Hospital during the three years from 1984 to 1986. Data were analyzed with the method of multivariate analysis (quantification theory type II). The major factors affecting the frequency of visits were an air temperature at more than 15 degrees C, a relative humidity at more than 65%, a vapor pressure at more 1013 mb and a wind speed at less than 3.5 m/sec. Multivariate analysis of seven meteorological parameters, the four parameters shown above plus sea level pressure, cloud density and precipitation, revealed that discrimination ratios with the Lag 3, Lag 2, Lag 1 and Lag 0 values were 63.8%, 68.5%, 68.5% and 63.6%, respectively. These results indicate that asthma forecast is possible by the multivariate analysis of meteorological conditions.