Ito S, Kondo H, Kawaoi T, Hiruma F, Takashima H, Kim B, Togasaki K, Togo T, Abe T
Arerugi. 1989 Sep;38(9):1077-83.
The correlation between patient visits and meteorological parameters was analyzed among asthmatic children who visited the out-patient emergency clinic at the Teikyo University Hospital during the three years from 1984 to 1986. Data were analyzed with the method of multivariate analysis (quantification theory type II). The major factors affecting the frequency of visits were an air temperature at more than 15 degrees C, a relative humidity at more than 65%, a vapor pressure at more 1013 mb and a wind speed at less than 3.5 m/sec. Multivariate analysis of seven meteorological parameters, the four parameters shown above plus sea level pressure, cloud density and precipitation, revealed that discrimination ratios with the Lag 3, Lag 2, Lag 1 and Lag 0 values were 63.8%, 68.5%, 68.5% and 63.6%, respectively. These results indicate that asthma forecast is possible by the multivariate analysis of meteorological conditions.
对1984年至1986年这三年间在帝京大学医院门诊急诊就诊的哮喘患儿，分析了就诊次数与气象参数之间的相关性。采用多变量分析方法（量化理论II型）对数据进行分析。影响就诊频率的主要因素是气温高于15摄氏度、相对湿度高于65%、水汽压高于1013毫巴以及风速低于3.5米/秒。对七个气象参数（上述四个参数加上海平面气压、云量和降水量）进行多变量分析，结果显示滞后3、滞后2、滞后1和滞后0值的判别率分别为63.8%、68.5%、68.5%和63.6%。这些结果表明，通过对气象条件进行多变量分析可以进行哮喘预测。
