Ugarte M D, Adin A, Goicoa T, López-Abente G
Department of Statistics and O.R., Public University of Navarre, Spain; Institute for Advanced Materials (INAMAT), Public University of Navarre, Spain.
Department of Statistics and O.R., Public University of Navarre, Spain.
Cancer Epidemiol. 2015 Jun;39(3):480-5. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2015.03.013. Epub 2015 Apr 20.
To analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of brain cancer relative mortality risks in young population (under 20 years of age) in Spanish provinces during the period 1986-2010.
A new and flexible conditional autoregressive spatio-temporal model with two levels of spatial aggregation was used.
Brain cancer relative mortality risks in young population in Spanish provinces decreased during the last years, although a clear increase was observed during the 1990s. The global geographical pattern emphasized a high relative mortality risk in Navarre and a low relative mortality risk in Madrid. Although there is a specific Autonomous Region-time interaction effect on the relative mortality risks this effect is weak in the final estimates when compared to the global spatial and temporal effects.
Differences in mortality between regions and over time may be caused by the increase in survival rates, the differences in treatment or the availability of diagnostic tools. The increase in relative risks observed in the 1990s was probably due to improved diagnostics with computerized axial tomography and magnetic resonance imaging techniques.
分析1986 - 2010年期间西班牙各省20岁以下年轻人群脑癌相对死亡风险的时空演变。
使用了一种新的、灵活的具有两级空间聚合的条件自回归时空模型。
西班牙各省年轻人群的脑癌相对死亡风险在过去几年有所下降，尽管在20世纪90年代观察到明显上升。全球地理格局显示，纳瓦拉的相对死亡风险较高，而马德里的相对死亡风险较低。尽管在相对死亡风险方面存在特定的自治区 - 时间交互效应，但与全球空间和时间效应相比，该效应在最终估计中较弱。
不同地区之间以及不同时间的死亡率差异可能是由于生存率的提高、治疗差异或诊断工具的可用性造成的。20世纪90年代观察到的相对风险增加可能是由于计算机断层扫描和磁共振成像技术诊断的改善。
