Logan John R, Xu Zengwang
Professor in the sociology department of Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island 02910.
Professor in the geography department of the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53201.
Geogr Rev. 2015 Apr;105(2):133-155. doi: 10.1111/j.1931-0846.2014.12064.x.
We study hurricane risk on the U.S. Gulf Coast during 1950-2005, estimating the wind damage and storm surge from every hurricane in this extended period. Wind damage is estimated from the known path and wind speeds of individual storms and calibrated to fit actual damage reports for a sample of Gulf Coast storms. Storm surge is estimated using the SLOSH model developed by NOAA. These models provide the first comprehensive overview of the hurricane storm hazard as it has been experienced over a fifty-six-year period. We link the estimated damage with information on the population and specific socio-demographic components of the population (by age, race, and poverty status). Results show that white, young adult, and nonpoor populations have shifted over time away from zones with higher risk of wind damage, while more vulnerable population groups-the elderly, African Americans, and poor-have moved in the opposite direction. All groups have moved away from areas with high risk of storm surge since 1970. But in this case, perhaps because living near the water is still perceived as an amenity, those at highest risk are whites, elderly, and nonpoor households. Here exposure represents a trade-off between the risk and the amenity.
我们研究了1950年至2005年期间美国墨西哥湾沿岸的飓风风险，估算了这一较长时期内每场飓风造成的风灾损失和风暴潮。风灾损失是根据单个风暴已知的路径和风速估算得出，并进行校准以符合墨西哥湾沿岸部分风暴的实际损失报告。风暴潮是使用美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）开发的SLOSH模型估算的。这些模型首次全面概述了56年期间经历过的飓风风暴危害。我们将估算的损失与人口信息以及人口的特定社会人口组成部分（按年龄、种族和贫困状况）相关联。结果表明，随着时间的推移，白人、年轻成年人以及非贫困人群已从风灾风险较高的地区迁出，而更脆弱的人群——老年人、非裔美国人以及贫困人口——则朝着相反的方向迁移。自1970年以来，所有群体都已搬离风暴潮风险高的地区。但在这种情况下，或许是因为住在水边仍被视为一种便利，风险最高的是白人、老年人以及非贫困家庭。这里，暴露代表了风险与便利之间的权衡。
