Niimi Ryosuke, Watanabe Katsumi
Department of Psychology, Graduate School of Humanities and Sociology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; e-mail:
Research Centre for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; e-mail:
Iperception. 2014 Nov 20;5(7):572-84. doi: 10.1068/i0661. eCollection 2014.
Although personal liking varies considerably, there is a general trend of liking shared by many people (public favour). Visual liking in particular may be largely shared by people, as it is strongly influenced by relatively low-level perceptual factors. If so, it is likely that people have correct knowledge of public favour. We examined the human ability to predict public favour. In three experiments, participants rated the subjective likability of various visual objects (e.g. car, chair), and predicted the mean liking rating by other participants. Irrespective of the object's category, the correlation between individual prediction and actual mean liking of others (prediction validity) was not higher than the correlation between the predictor's own liking and the mean liking of others. Further, individual prediction correlated more with the predictor's own liking than it was with others' liking. Namely, predictions were biased towards the predictor's subjective liking (a variation of the false consensus effect). The results suggest that humans do not have (or cannot access) correct knowledge of public favour. It was suggested that increasing the number of predictors is the appropriate strategy for making a good prediction of public favour.
尽管个人喜好差异很大，但许多人存在一种共同的喜好趋势（公众偏好）。特别是视觉喜好，很可能在很大程度上为人们所共有，因为它受到相对较低层次的感知因素的强烈影响。如果是这样，人们很可能对公众偏好有正确的认知。我们研究了人类预测公众偏好的能力。在三个实验中，参与者对各种视觉对象（如汽车、椅子）的主观喜爱程度进行评分，并预测其他参与者的平均喜爱评分。无论对象的类别如何，个体预测与他人实际平均喜爱程度之间的相关性（预测效度）并不高于预测者自身喜好与他人平均喜好之间的相关性。此外，个体预测与预测者自身喜好的相关性高于与他人喜好的相关性。也就是说，预测偏向于预测者的主观喜好（虚假共识效应的一种变体）。结果表明，人类没有（或无法获取）关于公众偏好的正确认知。有人提出，增加预测者的数量是对公众偏好做出良好预测的合适策略。
