Fang Yiping, Pedroni Nicola, Zio Enrico
Chair on Systems Science and the Energetic Challenge, Ecole Centrale Paris and Supelec, France.
Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Italy.
Risk Anal. 2015 Apr;35(4):594-607. doi: 10.1111/risa.12396. Epub 2015 Apr 30.
Large-scale outages on real-world critical infrastructures, although infrequent, are increasingly disastrous to our society. In this article, we are primarily concerned with power transmission networks and we consider the problem of allocation of generation to distributors by rewiring links under the objectives of maximizing network resilience to cascading failure and minimizing investment costs. The combinatorial multiobjective optimization is carried out by a nondominated sorting binary differential evolution (NSBDE) algorithm. For each generators-distributors connection pattern considered in the NSBDE search, a computationally cheap, topological model of failure cascading in a complex network (named the Motter-Lai [ML] model) is used to simulate and quantify network resilience to cascading failures initiated by targeted attacks. The results on the 400 kV French power transmission network case study show that the proposed method allows us to identify optimal patterns of generators-distributors connection that improve cascading resilience at an acceptable cost. To verify the realistic character of the results obtained by the NSBDE with the embedded ML topological model, a more realistic but also more computationally expensive model of cascading failures is adopted, based on optimal power flow (namely, the ORNL-Pserc-Alaska) model). The consistent results between the two models provide impetus for the use of topological, complex network theory models for analysis and optimization of large infrastructures against cascading failure with the advantages of simplicity, scalability, and low computational cost.
现实世界中关键基础设施的大规模停电虽然不常见,但对我们的社会造成的灾难却越来越大。在本文中,我们主要关注输电网络,并考虑在使网络对级联故障的恢复力最大化和投资成本最小化的目标下,通过重新布线来将发电分配给配电方的问题。组合多目标优化通过非支配排序二进制差分进化(NSBDE)算法来进行。对于NSBDE搜索中考虑的每个发电机 - 配电方连接模式,使用一个计算成本低的复杂网络中故障级联的拓扑模型(称为Motter - Lai [ML]模型)来模拟和量化网络对由定向攻击引发的级联故障的恢复力。在400 kV法国输电网络案例研究中的结果表明,所提出的方法使我们能够识别出发电机 - 配电方连接的最优模式,从而以可接受的成本提高级联恢复力。为了验证嵌入ML拓扑模型的NSBDE所获得结果的现实性,基于最优潮流(即ORNL - Pserc - Alaska)模型采用了一个更现实但计算成本也更高的级联故障模型。这两个模型之间一致的结果为使用拓扑复杂网络理论模型来分析和优化大型基础设施以应对级联故障提供了动力,这些模型具有简单、可扩展和计算成本低的优点。