Raab Markus, MacMahon Clare
a German Sport University Cologne.
Res Q Exerc Sport. 2015 Jun;86(2):152-62. doi: 10.1080/02701367.2014.991437. Epub 2015 Jan 28.
Previous discussions of the hot hand belief, wherein athletes believe that they have a greater chance of scoring after 2 or 3 hits (successes) compared with 2 or 3 misses, have focused on whether this is the case within game statistics. Researchers have argued that the perception of the hot hand in random sequences is a bias of the cognitive system. Yet most have failed to explore the impact of framing on the stability of the belief and the behavior based on it.
The authors conducted 2 studies that manipulated the frame of a judgment task. In Study 1, framing was manipulated via instructions in a playmaker allocation paradigm in volleyball. In Study 2, the frame was manipulated by presenting videos for allocation decisions from either the actor or observer perspective.
Both manipulations changed the hot hand belief and sequential choices. We found in both studies that the belief in continuation of positive or negative streaks is nonlinear and allocations to the same player after 3 successive hits are reduced.
The authors argue that neither the hot hand belief nor hot hand behavior is stable, but rather, both are sensitive to decision frames. The results can inform coaches on the importance of how to provide information to athletes.
先前关于“热手效应”信念的讨论聚焦于在比赛统计数据中是否存在这样的情况，即运动员认为相比2次或3次未命中，他们在2次或3次命中（成功）后得分的机会更大。研究人员认为，在随机序列中对“热手效应”的认知是认知系统的一种偏差。然而，大多数人未能探讨框架对该信念稳定性以及基于此的行为的影响。
作者进行了两项研究，对判断任务的框架进行了操纵。在研究1中，通过排球比赛中组织者分配范式的指令来操纵框架。在研究2中，通过从演员或观察者角度呈现视频以供分配决策来操纵框架。
两种操纵都改变了“热手效应”信念和序列选择。我们在两项研究中都发现，对连续的正面或负面序列延续的信念是非线性的，并且在连续3次命中后对同一球员的分配减少。
作者认为，“热手效应”信念和“热手效应”行为都不稳定，而是对决策框架敏感。这些结果可以让教练了解如何向运动员提供信息的重要性。
