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热手现象存在于排球中,并被用于分配决策。

The hot hand exists in volleyball and is used for allocation decisions.

机构信息

Institute of Psychology, German Sport University Cologne, Cologne, Germany.

出版信息

J Exp Psychol Appl. 2012 Mar;18(1):81-94. doi: 10.1037/a0025951. Epub 2011 Oct 17.

Abstract

The "hot hand" belief in sports refers to the conviction that a player has a higher chance of making a shot after two or three successful shots than after two or three misses (resulting in "streaks"). This belief is usually considered a cognitive fallacy, although it has been conjectured that in basketball the defense will attack a "hot" player and prevent streaks from occurring. To address this argument, we provide the first study on the hot hand in volleyball, where the net limits direct defensive counterstrategies, meaning that streaks can more likely emerge if a player is hot. We first establish that athletes believe in the hot hand in volleyball (Study 1A). Analyzing the top 26 first-division players, we then show that streaks do exist for half of the players (Study 1B). Coaches can detect players' performance variability and use it to make strategic decisions (Study 2A). Playmakers are also sensitive to streaks and rely on them when deciding to whom to allocate the ball (Study 2B). We conclude that for volleyball the hot hand exists, coaches and playmakers are able to detect it, and playmakers tend to use it "adaptively," which results in more hits for a team.

摘要

在体育界,“手感火热”是指一名球员在连续投中两三个球之后,比连续投失两三个球之后(出现“连失”),有更高的投篮命中概率。尽管人们推测在篮球比赛中,防守方会针对手感火热的球员采取攻击性防守策略,从而阻止其得分 streak 的出现,但这种现象通常被认为是一种认知上的谬误。为了解决这一争议,我们首次针对排球中的“手感火热”现象展开了研究。在排球比赛中,球网限制了直接的防守反击策略,这意味着如果球员手感火热,那么得分 streak 更有可能出现。我们首先证实了运动员相信排球比赛中存在“手感火热”现象(研究 1A)。通过对前 26 名一线球员的分析,我们发现其中有一半球员确实存在得分 streak(研究 1B)。教练可以通过观察球员的表现变化来做出战略决策(研究 2A)。而组织者也对得分 streak 很敏感,并在决定将球传给谁时会依赖这一现象(研究 2B)。综上所述,对于排球运动而言,“手感火热”现象确实存在,教练和组织者能够察觉到这一现象,并且组织者倾向于“适应性”地利用这一现象,从而使球队获得更多的得分。

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