Institute of Psychology, German Sport University Cologne, Cologne, Germany.
TUM School of Medicine and Health, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.
J Sport Exerc Psychol. 2024 Sep 12;46(5):255-265. doi: 10.1123/jsep.2024-0060. Print 2024 Oct 1.
Which opponent player to sequentially serve to in beach volleyball is crucial given the advantage of the attacking team. The sequential choice theory was tested in three studies by analyzing allocation strategies based on the hot hand belief. Study 1 showed strong belief in the hot hand of national coaches. In Study 2, we analyzed Tokyo Olympics data to explore how base rates and sequential selection rates varied in an elite sample. When base rates of players differed by 0.25, low-performing players were frequently selected. In an experiment with elite athletes, Study 3A demonstrated accurate base-rate-difference recognition but low base-rate-change recognition. Study 3B found that the hot hand is believed to be important but is not often detected. We conclude that players and coaches follow predictions of the sequential choice theory and believe in the hot hand, but do not have a shared understanding of how to use it.
在沙滩排球中，考虑到进攻方的优势，依次让哪个对手球员发球是至关重要的。通过基于热手信念分析分配策略，本研究在三项研究中检验了顺序选择理论。研究 1 表明，国家队教练对手感火热的信念非常强烈。在研究 2 中，我们分析了东京奥运会的数据，以探索在精英样本中基本比率和顺序选择率是如何变化的。当球员的基本比率相差 0.25 时，表现不佳的球员经常被选中。在一项针对精英运动员的实验中，研究 3A 证明了对基本比率差异的准确识别，但对基本比率变化的识别能力较低。研究 3B 发现，虽然人们认为热手很重要，但并不经常能察觉到它。我们的结论是，球员和教练遵循顺序选择理论的预测，并相信热手，但他们并没有共同的理解如何使用它。
