Kerckhoffs Jules, Wang Meng, Meliefste Kees, Malmqvist Ebba, Fischer Paul, Janssen Nicole A H, Beelen Rob, Hoek Gerard
Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, University Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Lund University, Sweden.
Environ Res. 2015 Jul;140:440-8. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2015.04.014. Epub 2015 May 15.
Uncertainty about health effects of long-term ozone exposure remains. Land use regression (LUR) models have been used successfully for modeling fine scale spatial variation of primary pollutants but very limited for ozone. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of developing a national LUR model for ozone at a fine spatial scale. Ozone concentrations were measured with passive samplers at 90 locations across the Netherlands (19 regional background, 36 urban background, 35 traffic). All sites were measured simultaneously during four 2-weekly campaigns spread over the seasons. LUR models were developed for the summer average as the primary exposure and annual average using predictor variables obtained with Geographic Information Systems. Summer average ozone concentrations varied between 32 and 61 µg/m(3). Ozone concentrations at traffic sites were on average 9 µg/m(3) lower compared to regional background sites. Ozone correlated highly negatively with nitrogen dioxide and moderately with fine particles. A LUR model including small-scale traffic, large-scale address density, urban green and a region indicator explained 71% of the spatial variation in summer average ozone concentrations. Land use regression modeling is a promising method to assess ozone spatial variation, but the high correlation with NO2 limits application in epidemiology.
长期臭氧暴露对健康影响的不确定性依然存在。土地利用回归（LUR）模型已成功用于模拟一次污染物的精细尺度空间变化，但在臭氧方面的应用非常有限。我们的目标是评估在精细空间尺度上开发全国性臭氧LUR模型的可行性。在荷兰的90个地点（19个区域背景点、36个城市背景点、35个交通点）使用被动采样器测量臭氧浓度。在跨越四季的四个为期两周的活动期间，对所有站点同时进行测量。以夏季平均值作为主要暴露指标，并利用地理信息系统获得的预测变量开发了年平均LUR模型。夏季平均臭氧浓度在32至61微克/立方米之间变化。交通站点的臭氧浓度与区域背景站点相比平均低9微克/立方米。臭氧与二氧化氮高度负相关，与细颗粒物中度相关。一个包含小规模交通、大规模地址密度、城市绿地和区域指标的LUR模型解释了夏季平均臭氧浓度空间变化的71%。土地利用回归建模是评估臭氧空间变化的一种有前景的方法，但与二氧化氮的高度相关性限制了其在流行病学中的应用。
