Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, Y010 5DD, United Kingdom.
Wildlife Conservation Society, Plot 802 Kiwafu Rd, Kansanga, P.O. Box 7487, Kampala, Uganda.
Conserv Biol. 2015 Oct;29(5):1458-70. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12538. Epub 2015 May 20.
Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999-2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site-level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required.
在保护区内，生物多样性的丧失往往是非法资源利用的结果。因此，了解非法活动的模式和范围对于有效执法和防止生物多样性下降至关重要。我们利用广泛的数据，这些数据通常是由许多保护区的护林员巡逻收集的，以及贝叶斯层次模型，来确定乌干达伊丽莎白女王保护区（QECA）内多种非法活动的驱动因素、趋势和分布。侵占（例如，牧民带着牛）和非法猎捕非商业性动物（例如，陷阱猎取野味）是 QECA 内最普遍的非法活动。非法活动发生在 QECA 的不同地区。非法猎捕非商业性动物在国家公园内分布最广。总的来说，虽然生态协变量很重要，但它们并不是非法活动发生的有用预测因素。相反，前几年非法活动的地点更为重要。在研究期间（1999-2012 年），侵占和非商业性植物收获（非木材产品）的数量显著增加。我们还发现，所有活动的发生都存在显著的时空变化。我们的研究结果表明，需要明确地对护林员巡逻工作进行建模，以减少现有未修正或单位捕获努力分析中的偏差。需要优先考虑护林员巡逻策略，以针对非法活动；这些策略由保护区管理者确定，因此可以在现场层面迅速实施变化。这些策略还应根据过去非法活动发生的地点来制定：这是未来事件的最有用预测因素。然而，由于非法活动的空间和时间变化，整个保护区甚至在发生频率较低的地区都需要定期巡逻。
