Mueller B, Seneviratne S I
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich Zurich, Switzerland ; Climate Research Division, Environment Canada Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich Zurich, Switzerland.
Geophys Res Lett. 2014 Jan 16;41(1):128-134. doi: 10.1002/2013GL058055. Epub 2014 Jan 8.
[1] Land climate is important for human population since it affects inhabited areas. Here we evaluate the realism of simulated evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, and temperature in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble on continental areas. For ET, a newly compiled synthesis data set prepared within the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment-sponsored LandFlux-EVAL project is used. The results reveal systematic ET biases in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, with an overestimation in most regions, especially in Europe, Africa, China, Australia, Western North America, and part of the Amazon region. The global average overestimation amounts to 0.17 mm/d. This bias is more pronounced than in the previous CMIP3 ensemble (overestimation of 0.09 mm/d). Consistent with the ET overestimation, precipitation is also overestimated relative to existing reference data sets. We suggest that the identified biases in ET can explain respective systematic biases in temperature in many of the considered regions. The biases additionally display a seasonal dependence and are generally of opposite sign (ET underestimation and temperature overestimation) in boreal summer (June-August).
[1]陆地气候对人类种群很重要,因为它影响着居住区。在此,我们评估了CMIP5多模式集合中对陆地区域模拟的蒸散量(ET)、降水量和温度的真实性。对于ET,我们使用了在全球能量与水循环实验资助的LandFlux-EVAL项目中编制的一个新的综合数据集。结果揭示了耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)模拟中系统性的ET偏差,在大多数地区存在高估现象,尤其是在欧洲、非洲、中国、澳大利亚、北美西部以及亚马逊地区的部分区域。全球平均高估量达0.17毫米/天。这种偏差比之前的CMIP3集合(高估0.09毫米/天)更为明显。与ET高估一致,相对于现有参考数据集,降水量也被高估。我们认为,所确定的ET偏差可以解释许多所考虑区域中温度方面相应的系统性偏差。这些偏差还呈现出季节性依赖,并且在北半球夏季(6月至8月)通常具有相反的符号(ET低估和温度高估)。