基于2010年全球疾病负担研究对中国老年人口疾病负担的预测与分析
Forecasting and Analyzing the Disease Burden of Aged Population in China, Based on the 2010 Global Burden of Disease Study.
作者信息
Bao Chengzhen, Mayila Mamat, Ye Zhenhua, Wang Jianbing, Jin Mingjuan, He Wenjiong, Chen Kun
机构信息
School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
出版信息
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015 Jun 25;12(7):7172-84. doi: 10.3390/ijerph120707172.
BACKGROUND
Forecasting the disease burden of the elderly will contribute to make a comprehensive assessment about physical and mental status of the elderly in China and provide a basis for reducing the negative consequences of aging society to a minimum.
METHODS
This study collected data from a public database online provided by Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Grey model GM (1, 1) was used to forecast all-cause and disease-specific rates of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2015 and 2020.
RESULTS
After cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis, we found that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were still the greatest threats in the elderly, followed by injuries. As for 136 predicted causes, more than half of NCDs increased obviously with age, less than a quarter of communicable, material, neonatal, and nutritional disorders or injuries had uptrend.
CONCLUSIONS
The findings display the health condition of the Chinese elderly in the future, which will provide critical information for scientific and sociological researches on preventing and reducing the risks of aging society.
背景
预测老年人的疾病负担将有助于全面评估中国老年人的身心健康状况，并为将老龄化社会的负面影响降至最低提供依据。
方法
本研究收集了全球疾病负担研究2010在线提供的公共数据库中的数据。采用灰色模型GM（1,1）预测2015年和2020年全因和特定疾病的伤残调整生命年（DALYs）率。
结果
经过横断面和纵向分析，我们发现非传染性疾病（NCDs）仍然是老年人面临的最大威胁，其次是伤害。对于136种预测病因，超过一半的非传染性疾病随年龄增长明显增加，不到四分之一的传染病、物质、新生儿和营养障碍或伤害呈上升趋势。
结论
研究结果展示了中国老年人未来的健康状况，这将为预防和降低老龄化社会风险的科学和社会学研究提供关键信息。
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