School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China; School of Architecture, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK.
School of Architecture, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK; School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China.
J Environ Manage. 2015 Sep 15;161:92-105. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.06.026. Epub 2015 Jul 6.
With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020.
随着中国大型产业廊道的快速发展，中国的景观生态学目前正受到影响。因此，本研究开发并验证了一个具有多维非线性动态预测功能的系统动力学模型，以考虑产业增长和景观生态学，从而实现更可持续的发展。首先，检验了中国产业发展与景观生态学之间的关系，然后建立了五个子系统：工业、人口、城市经济、环境和景观生态学。然后检验每个子系统的主要影响因素，以建立连接这些因素的流程图。因此，通过连接子系统，建立了一个整体的产业增长和景观生态学模型。利用实际数据和基于 GIS 的哈大齐工业走廊（中国典型的工业走廊）2005-2009 年的景观指数，从历史行为、逻辑结构和未来预测三个方面对模型进行了验证，其中 84.8%的因素的模型误差率小于 5%，所有因素的平均误差率为 2.96%，景观生态子系统的模拟测试误差小于 2%。此外，还进行了模型应用，考虑了四种产业发展模式下的景观指数变化，并通过 2015-2020 年的模拟预测结果，考察了最优的产业增长方案对景观生态保护的影响。
