Deo Rajat, Shou Haochang, Soliman Elsayed Z, Yang Wei, Arkin Joshua M, Zhang Xiaoming, Townsend Raymond R, Go Alan S, Shlipak Michael G, Feldman Harold I
Cardiac Electrophysiology Section, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;
Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics and the Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania;
J Am Soc Nephrol. 2016 Feb;27(2):559-69. doi: 10.1681/ASN.2014101045. Epub 2015 Jul 9.
Limited studies have assessed the resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) as a screening test in intermediate risk populations. We evaluated whether a panel of common ECG parameters are independent predictors of mortality risk in a prospective cohort of participants with CKD. The Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study enrolled 3939 participants with eGFR<70 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) from June 2003 to September 2008. Over a median follow-up of 7.5 years, 750 participants died. After adjudicating the initial 497 deaths, we identified 256 cardiovascular and 241 noncardiovascular deaths. ECG metrics were independent risk markers for cardiovascular death (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval): PR interval ≥200 ms (1.62, 1.19-2.19); QRS interval 100-119 ms (1.64, 1.20-2.25) and ≥120 ms (1.75, 1.17-2.62); corrected QT (QTc) interval ≥450 ms in men or ≥460 ms in women (1.72, 1.19-2.49); and heart rate 60-90 beats per minute (1.21, 0.89-1.63) and ≥90 beats per minute (2.35, 1.03-5.33). Most ECG measures were stronger markers of risk for cardiovascular death than for all-cause mortality or noncardiovascular death. Adding these intervals to a comprehensive model of cardiorenal risk factors increased the C-statistic for cardiovascular death from 0.77 to 0.81 (P<0.001). Furthermore, adding ECG metrics to the model adjusted for standard risk factors resulted in a net reclassification of 12.1% (95% confidence interval 8.1%-16.0%). These data suggest common ECG metrics are independent risk factors for cardiovascular death and enhance the ability to predict death events in a population with CKD.
仅有有限的研究将静息12导联心电图(ECG)作为中度风险人群的筛查测试。我们评估了一组常见的ECG参数是否为慢性肾脏病(CKD)前瞻性队列研究中死亡风险的独立预测因素。慢性肾功能不全队列(CRIC)研究在2003年6月至2008年9月期间招募了3939例估算肾小球滤过率(eGFR)<70 ml/(min·1.73 m²)的参与者。在中位随访7.5年期间,750例参与者死亡。在判定最初的497例死亡病例后,我们确定了256例心血管死亡和241例非心血管死亡。ECG指标是心血管死亡的独立风险标志物(风险比,95%置信区间):PR间期≥200 ms(1.62,1.19 - 2.19);QRS间期100 - 119 ms(1.64,1.20 - 2.25)和≥120 ms(1.75,1.17 - 2.62);男性校正QT(QTc)间期≥450 ms或女性≥460 ms(1.72,1.19 - 2.49);心率60 - 90次/分钟(1.21,0.89 - 1.63)和≥90次/分钟(2.35,1.03 - 5.33)。大多数ECG测量指标作为心血管死亡风险标志物比全因死亡率或非心血管死亡风险标志物更强。将这些间期添加到心脏肾危险因素综合模型中,心血管死亡的C统计量从0.77增加到0.81(P<0.001)。此外,将ECG指标添加到根据标准危险因素调整的模型中,净重新分类为12.1%(95%置信区间8.1% - 16.0%)。这些数据表明,常见的ECG指标是心血管死亡的独立危险因素,并增强了预测CKD人群死亡事件的能力。