Houle Jason N, Collins J Michael, Schmeiser Maximilian D
Jason N. Houle is with the Department of Sociology, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH. J. Michael Collins is with School of Human Ecology and LaFollette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Maximilian D. Schmeiser is with the Microeconomic Surveys Section at the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC.
Am J Public Health. 2015 Sep;105(9):e75-80. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2015.302671. Epub 2015 Jul 16.
We examined the association between influenza outbreaks in 83 metropolitan areas and credit card and mortgage defaults, as measured in quarterly zip code-level credit data over the period of 2004 to 2012.
We used ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and 2-stage least squares instrumental variables regression strategies to examine the relationship between influenza-related Google searches and 30-, 60-, and 90-day credit card and mortgage delinquency rates.
We found that a proxy for influenza outbreaks is associated with a small but statistically significant increase in credit card and mortgage default rates, net of other factors. These effects are largest for 90-day defaults, suggesting that influenza outbreaks have a disproportionate impact on vulnerable borrowers who are already behind on their payments.
Overall, it appears there is a relationship between exogenous health shocks (such as influenza) and credit default. The results suggest that consumer finances could benefit from policies that aim to reduce the financial shocks of illness, particularly for vulnerable borrowers.
我们研究了2004年至2012年期间83个大都市地区的流感疫情与信用卡及抵押贷款违约之间的关联，这些关联通过季度邮政编码级信用数据来衡量。
我们使用普通最小二乘法、固定效应模型以及两阶段最小二乘法工具变量回归策略，来研究与流感相关的谷歌搜索量和30天、60天及90天信用卡及抵押贷款拖欠率之间的关系。
我们发现，在排除其他因素后，流感疫情的一个代理指标与信用卡及抵押贷款违约率的小幅但具有统计学意义的上升相关。这些影响在90天违约情况中最为显著，这表明流感疫情对那些已经拖欠还款的脆弱借款人产生了不成比例的影响。
总体而言，外生健康冲击（如流感）与信用违约之间似乎存在关联。结果表明，旨在减少疾病带来的财务冲击的政策可能会使消费者财务状况受益，尤其是对脆弱借款人而言。
