Denman Antony R, Rogers Stephen, Ali Akeem, Sinclair John, Phillips Paul S, Crockett Robin G M, Groves-Kirkby Christopher J
School of Science and Technology, The University of Northampton, St Georges Avenue, Northampton NN2 6JD, UK.
Public Health Department, Northamptonshire County Council, County Hall, Northampton NN1 1ED, UK.
J Environ Radioact. 2015 Dec;150:159-69. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2015.08.012. Epub 2015 Aug 30.
Smoking and radon both cause lung cancer, and together the risk is significantly higher. UK public health campaigns continue to reduce smoking prevalence, and other initiatives identify houses with raised radon (radon-222) levels and encourage remedial action. Smoking prevalence and radon levels in the UK have been mapped at Primary Care Trust level. This paper extends that work, using a commercial socio-demographic database to estimate smoking prevalence at the postcode sector level, and to predict the population characteristics at postcode sector level for 87 postcode sectors in Northamptonshire. Likely smoking prevalence in each postcode sector is then modelled from estimates of the smoking prevalence in the different socio-economic groups used by the database. Mapping estimated smoking prevalence, radon potential and average lung cancer incidence for each postcode sector suggested that there was little correlation between smoking prevalence and radon levels, as radon potential was generally lower in urban areas in Northamptonshire, where the estimates of smoking prevalence were highest. However, the analysis demonstrated some sectors where both radon potential and smoking prevalence were moderately raised. This study showed the potential of this methodology to map estimated smoking prevalence and radon levels to inform locally targeted public health campaigns to reduce lung cancer incidence.
吸烟和氡气都会导致肺癌，二者共同作用时风险会显著更高。英国的公共卫生运动持续降低吸烟率，其他举措则是识别出氡气（氡 - 222）水平升高的房屋并鼓励采取补救措施。英国的吸烟率和氡气水平已在初级保健信托层面进行了测绘。本文扩展了这项工作，利用一个商业社会人口数据库来估计邮政编码区域层面的吸烟率，并预测北安普敦郡87个邮政编码区域的人口特征。然后根据数据库中不同社会经济群体的吸烟率估计值，对每个邮政编码区域可能的吸烟率进行建模。绘制每个邮政编码区域的估计吸烟率、氡气潜在风险和平均肺癌发病率图表明，吸烟率与氡气水平之间几乎没有相关性，因为在北安普敦郡吸烟率估计值最高的城市地区，氡气潜在风险通常较低。然而，分析显示有些区域的氡气潜在风险和吸烟率都有所适度升高。这项研究表明了这种方法在绘制估计吸烟率和氡气水平图方面的潜力，以便为减少肺癌发病率的地方针对性公共卫生运动提供信息。
