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基于供体和受体特征的不同评分系统对活体肝移植术后结局预测的比较

Comparison of Different Scoring Systems Based on Both Donor and Recipient Characteristics for Predicting Outcome after Living Donor Liver Transplantation.

作者信息

Ma Yucheng, Wang Qing, Yang Jiayin, Yan Lunan

机构信息

Department of Liver Transplantation, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2015 Sep 17;10(9):e0136604. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0136604. eCollection 2015.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0136604
PMID:26378786
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4574737/
Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In order to provide a good match between donor and recipient in liver transplantation, four scoring systems [the product of donor age and Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (D-MELD), the score to predict survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT), the balance of risk score (BAR), and the transplant risk index (TRI)] based on both donor and recipient parameters were designed. This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the four scores in living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and compare them with the MELD score.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical data of 249 adult patients undergoing LDLT in our center were retrospectively evaluated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of each score were calculated and compared at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT.

RESULTS

The BAR at 1-, 3-, 6-month and 1-year after LDLT and the D-MELD and TRI at 1-, 3- and 6-month after LDLT showed acceptable performances in the prediction of survival (AUC>0.6), while the SOFT showed poor discrimination at 6-month after LDLT (AUC = 0.569). In addition, the D-MELD and BAR displayed positive correlations with the length of ICU stay (D-MELD, p = 0.025; BAR, p = 0.022). The SOFT was correlated with the time of mechanical ventilation (p = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

The D-MELD, BAR and TRI provided acceptable performance in predicting survival after LDLT. However, even though these scoring systems were based on both donor and recipient parameters, only the BAR provided better performance than the MELD in predicting 1-year survival after LDLT.

摘要

背景与目的

为了在肝移植中实现供体与受体的良好匹配,设计了四种基于供体和受体参数的评分系统[供体年龄与终末期肝病模型评分的乘积(D-MELD)、预测肝移植后生存结局的评分(SOFT)、风险平衡评分(BAR)和移植风险指数(TRI)]。本研究旨在评估这四种评分在活体肝移植(LDLT)中的性能,并将它们与MELD评分进行比较。

患者与方法

回顾性评估了在本中心接受LDLT的249例成年患者的临床资料。计算并比较了LDLT后1个月、3个月、6个月和1年时各评分的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)。

结果

LDLT后1个月、3个月、6个月和1年时的BAR以及LDLT后1个月、3个月和6个月时的D-MELD和TRI在生存预测方面表现可接受(AUC>0.6),而SOFT在LDLT后6个月时鉴别能力较差(AUC = 0.569)。此外,D-MELD和BAR与ICU住院时间呈正相关(D-MELD,p = 0.025;BAR,p = 0.022)。SOFT与机械通气时间相关(p = 0.022)。

结论

D-MELD、BAR和TRI在预测LDLT后的生存方面表现可接受。然而,尽管这些评分系统基于供体和受体参数,但只有BAR在预测LDLT后1年生存方面比MELD表现更好。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3be/4574737/f1f1cc240be1/pone.0136604.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3be/4574737/f1f1cc240be1/pone.0136604.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3be/4574737/f1f1cc240be1/pone.0136604.g001.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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Model for End-stage Liver Disease.终末期肝病模型
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D-MELD as a predictor of early graft mortality in adult-to-adult living-donor liver transplantation.D-MELD 作为成人对成人活体肝移植中早期移植物死亡率的预测因子。
Transplantation. 2014 Feb 27;97(4):457-62. doi: 10.1097/01.TP.0000435696.23525.d0.
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Predictive Capacity of Risk Models in Liver Transplantation.肝移植中风险模型的预测能力
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Potential value and limitations of different clinical scoring systems in the assessment of short- and long-term outcome following orthotopic liver transplantation.不同临床评分系统在评估原位肝移植术后短期和长期预后中的潜在价值和局限性。
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The survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT) score: validation with contemporaneous data and stratification of high-risk cohorts.肝移植后生存结局(SOFT)评分:同期数据验证和高危队列分层。
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The use of fatty liver grafts in modern allocation systems: risk assessment by the balance of risk (BAR) score.现代分配系统中使用脂肪肝供肝:风险评估的平衡风险(BAR)评分。
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The Donor-Risk-Index, ECD-Score and D-MELD-Score all fail to predict short-term outcome after liver transplantation with acceptable sensitivity and specificity.供体风险指数、ECD评分和D-MELD评分均无法以可接受的敏感性和特异性预测肝移植后的短期预后。
Ann Transplant. 2012 Jul-Sep;17(3):5-13. doi: 10.12659/aot.883452.
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Are there better guidelines for allocation in liver transplantation? A novel score targeting justice and utility in the model for end-stage liver disease era.在肝移植中是否有更好的分配指南?一种针对终末期肝病模型时代的正义和效用的新评分。
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